NFL Elo Power Rankings 2026

This is the 2026-ONLY "Blank Slate" page

The ratings and rankings on this page do not reflect season-ending ratings from the previous year. This page uses a new model for the 2025 season optimized for all teams starting each season at a 1500 rating. See this blog post for a comparison between this "blank slate" model and the regular model.

These ratings are likely to be less accurate for predicting future game outcomes than the regular model, especially toward the beginning of the season, but some people wanted to see them so here they are. This "blank slate" Elo rating model was tuned by backtesting against NFL games from 1994 through 2025. Over that span it correctly picks winners in 64.19% of games, trailing the regular (non blank slate) model's straight-up pick rate of 65.67% and the Vegas straight-up pick rate of 66.64% (according to covers.com/sportsoddshistory)..

All available 2026 season pages:

Weekly NFL power rankings based on the Elo rating system. Read more here.

Note: I'll try to update this page at least weekly during the NFL season, usually on Tuesdays. Want to compete against this Elo model? Join my public straight-up picks pool at nflpickspage.com. If you enjoy reading these power rankings you can check out the discussion in my weekly posts in the r/nfl subreddit or leave a small tip. Thanks!

After Week 4
After Week 3
After Week 2
After Week 1
Before Week 1
2026 Summaries by Team
2026 Stats and Tidbits
2026 Model Accuracy

← 2025 Season NFL Elo Home

↑ Power Rankings After Week 4, 2026 Season

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1 (+1)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1543 (+6)	4-0	at SEA (1526): Tossup
prev: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1506): W 24-14: 1537+6→1543
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1526): Tossup
2 (+1)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1541 (+7)	3-1	at PHI (1483): Slight fav
prev: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1516): W 22-17: 1534+7→1541
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1483): Slight favorite
3 (+2)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1537 (+8)	4-0	bye
prev: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1538): W 30-27: 1529+8→1537
next: (bye)
4 (+2)	Chicago BearsCHI	1532 (+6)	3-1	at GB (1479): Slight fav
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1489): W 23-12: 1526+6→1532
next: at Green Bay PackersGB (1479): Slight favorite
5 (-4)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1530 (-8)	3-1	at NE (1497): Slight fav
prev: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1529): L 27-30: 1538-8→1530
next: at New England PatriotsNE (1497): Slight favorite
6 (-2)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1528 (-3)	4-0	at NO (1477): Slight fav
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1456): W 15-10: 1531-3→1528
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1477): Slight favorite
7	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1526 (+1)	3-1	vs SF (1543): Tossup
prev: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1469): W 30-23: 1525+1→1526
next: vs San Francisco 49ersSF (1543): Tossup
8 (+1)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1521 (+5)	2-2	bye
prev: vs Detroit LionsDET (1501): W 32-26: 1516+5→1521
next: (bye)
9 (+2)	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1513 (+6)	2-2	vs BUF (1511): Slight fav
prev: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1489): W 24-20: 1507+6→1513
next: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1511): Slight favorite
10 (-2)	Buffalo BillsBUF	1511 (-10)	3-1	at LAR (1513): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1487): L 26-29: 1521-10→1511
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1513): Slight underdog
11 (+2)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1511 (+5)	2-2	vs TB (1469): Slight fav
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1472): W 34-30: 1506+5→1511
next: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1469): Slight favorite
12 (+11)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1511 (+25)	2-2	vs BAL (1509): Slight fav
prev: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1501): W 45-24: 1486+25→1511
next: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1509): Slight favorite
13 (-3)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1509 (-7)	2-2	at MIA (1459): Slight fav
prev: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1534): L 17-22: 1516-7→1509
next: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1459): Slight favorite
14 (-2)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1509 (+2)	3-1	at ATL (1511): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1474): W 24-18: 1507+2→1509
next: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1511): Slight underdog
15	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1506 (+2)	3-1	at NYJ (1482): Slight fav
prev: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1492): W 27-24: 1504+2→1506
next: at New York JetsNYJ (1482): Slight favorite
16 (+8)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1503 (+18)	2-2	at PIT (1490): Tossup
prev: at Washington CommandersWAS (1488): W 30-13: 1485+18→1503
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1490): Tossup
17 (-3)	Denver BroncosDEN	1500 (-6)	2-2	at LAC (1468): Slight fav
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1537): L 14-24: 1506-6→1500
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1468): Slight favorite
18 (+4)	New England PatriotsNE	1497 (+10)	2-2	vs LV (1530): Slight 'dog
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1521): W 29-26: 1487+10→1497
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1530): Slight underdog
19 (-2)	Detroit LionsDET	1496 (-5)	2-2	at ARI (1466): Slight fav
prev: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1516): L 26-32: 1501-5→1496
next: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1466): Slight favorite
20 (+5)	New York GiantsNYG	1494 (+10)	3-1	at WAS (1470): Tossup
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1477): W 36-24: 1484+10→1494
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1470): Tossup
21 (-3)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1490 (-2)	2-2	vs IND (1503): Tossup
prev: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1504): L 24-27: 1492-2→1490
next: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1503): Tossup
22 (-3)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1483 (-6)	2-2	at JAX (1541): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1507): L 20-24: 1489-6→1483
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1541): Slight underdog
23 (-3)	New York JetsNYJ	1482 (-7)	1-3	vs CLE (1506): Slight 'dog
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1526): L 12-23: 1489-7→1482
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1506): Slight underdog
24 (+6)	Green Bay PackersGB	1479 (+8)	2-2	vs CHI (1532): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1477): W 17-14: 1471+8→1479
next: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1532): Slight underdog
25 (-9)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1477 (-24)	1-3	vs MIN (1528): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1486): L 24-45: 1501-24→1477
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1528): Slight underdog
26 (+2)	Tennessee TitansTEN	1471 (-3)	0-4	vs HOU (1467): Slight fav
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1507): L 18-24: 1474-3→1471
next: vs Houston TexansHOU (1467): Slight favorite
27 (-6)	Washington CommandersWAS	1470 (-18)	1-3	vs NYG (1494): Tossup
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1485): L 13-30: 1488-18→1470
next: vs New York GiantsNYG (1494): Tossup
28 (-2)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1469 (-8)	0-4	at DAL (1511): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1471): L 14-17: 1477-8→1469
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1511): Slight underdog
29 (+2)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1468 (-1)	0-4	vs DEN (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1525): L 23-30: 1469-1→1468
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1500): Slight underdog
30 (-1)	Houston TexansHOU	1467 (-5)	0-4	at TEN (1471): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1506): L 30-34: 1472-5→1467
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1471): Slight underdog
31 (-4)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1466 (-11)	1-3	vs DET (1496): Slight 'dog
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1484): L 24-36: 1477-11→1466
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1496): Slight underdog
32	Miami DolphinsMIA	1459 (+3)	0-4	vs CIN (1509): Slight 'dog
prev: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1531): L 10-15: 1456+3→1459
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1509): Slight underdog
Favorites:
ATL, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, JAX,
LAR, LV, MIN, NYG, PIT, SEA, TEN

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 3, 2026 Season

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1 (+2)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1538 (+12)	3-0	vs KC (1529): Slight fav
prev: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1513): W 35-27: 1526+12→1538
next: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1529): Slight favorite
2 (-1)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1537 (+1)	3-0	vs DEN (1506): Slight fav
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1478): W 36-30: 1536+1→1537
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1506): Slight favorite
3 (+13)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1534 (+31)	2-1	at CIN (1516): Tossup
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1518): W 35-6: 1503+31→1534
next: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1516): Tossup
4	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1531 (+7)	3-0	vs MIA (1456): Win by 9
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1484): W 23-16: 1524+7→1531
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1456): Win by 9 points
5 (+4)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1529 (+13)	3-0	at LV (1538): Slight 'dog
prev: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1469): W 24-10: 1516+13→1529
next: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1538): Slight underdog
6 (+8)	Chicago BearsCHI	1526 (+22)	2-1	vs NYJ (1489): Slight fav
prev: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1510): W 27-7: 1504+22→1526
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1489): Slight favorite
7 (-5)	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1525 (-11)	2-1	vs LAC (1469): Slight fav
prev: at Washington CommandersWAS (1478): L 31-33: 1536-11→1525
next: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1469): Slight favorite
8	Buffalo BillsBUF	1521 (+3)	3-0	vs NE (1487): Slight fav
prev: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1472): W 24-16: 1518+3→1521
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1487): Slight favorite
9 (-3)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1516 (-8)	1-2	vs DET (1501): Slight fav
prev: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1496): L 18-21: 1524-8→1516
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1501): Slight favorite
10 (-5)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1516 (-8)	2-1	vs JAX (1534): Tossup
prev: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1484): L 27-30: 1524-8→1516
next: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1534): Tossup
11	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1507 (-6)	1-2	at PHI (1489): Tossup
prev: at Denver BroncosDEN (1499): L 26-30: 1513-6→1507
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1489): Tossup
12 (+6)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1507 (+8)	2-1	vs TEN (1474): Slight fav
prev: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1514): W 34-31: 1499+8→1507
next: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1474): Slight favorite
13 (-3)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1506 (-8)	1-2	at HOU (1472): Slight fav
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1499): L 31-34: 1514-8→1506
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1472): Slight favorite
14 (+3)	Denver BroncosDEN	1506 (+7)	2-1	at SF (1537): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1513): W 30-26: 1499+7→1506
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1537): Slight underdog
15 (+5)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1504 (+8)	2-1	vs PIT (1492): Slight fav
prev: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1524): W 21-18: 1496+8→1504
next: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1492): Slight favorite
16 (-4)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1501 (-12)	1-2	vs ATL (1486): Slight fav
prev: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1526): L 27-35: 1513-12→1501
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1486): Slight favorite
17 (+4)	Detroit LionsDET	1501 (+9)	2-1	at CAR (1516): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1497): W 31-24: 1492+9→1501
next: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1516): Slight underdog
18 (+4)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1492 (+8)	2-1	at CLE (1504): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1524): W 30-27: 1484+8→1492
next: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1504): Slight underdog
19 (-6)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1489 (-21)	2-1	vs LAR (1507): Tossup
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1504): L 7-27: 1510-21→1489
next: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1507): Tossup
20 (-1)	New York JetsNYJ	1489 (-8)	1-2	at CHI (1526): Slight 'dog
prev: at Detroit LionsDET (1492): L 24-31: 1497-8→1489
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1526): Slight underdog
21 (+5)	Washington CommandersWAS	1488 (+10)	1-2	at IND (1485): Tossup
prev: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1536): W 33-31: 1478+10→1488
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1485): Tossup
22 (-15)	New England PatriotsNE	1487 (-31)	1-2	at BUF (1521): Slight 'dog
prev: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1503): L 6-35: 1518-31→1487
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1521): Slight underdog
23 (+9)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1486 (+32)	1-2	at NO (1501): Slight 'dog
prev: at Green Bay PackersGB (1503): W 35-14: 1454+32→1486
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1501): Slight underdog
24	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1485 (+2)	1-2	at WAS (1488): Tossup
prev: vs Houston TexansHOU (1474): W 19-17: 1483+2→1485
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1488): Tossup
25 (+3)	New York GiantsNYG	1484 (+6)	2-1	vs ARI (1477): Slight fav
prev: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1480): W 12-7: 1478+6→1484
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1477): Slight favorite
26 (-3)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1477 (-7)	0-3	vs GB (1471): Slight fav
prev: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1524): L 16-23: 1484-7→1477
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1471): Slight favorite
27	Arizona CardinalsARI	1477 (-1)	1-2	at NYG (1484): Slight 'dog
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1536): L 30-36: 1478-1→1477
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1484): Slight underdog
28 (-3)	Tennessee TitansTEN	1474 (-6)	0-3	at BAL (1507): Slight 'dog
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1478): L 7-12: 1480-6→1474
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1507): Slight underdog
29	Houston TexansHOU	1472 (-2)	0-3	vs DAL (1506): Slight 'dog
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1483): L 17-19: 1474-2→1472
next: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1506): Slight underdog
30 (-15)	Green Bay PackersGB	1471 (-32)	1-2	at TB (1477): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1454): L 14-35: 1503-32→1471
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1477): Slight underdog
31 (-1)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1469 (-3)	0-3	at SEA (1525): Slight 'dog
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1518): L 16-24: 1472-3→1469
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1525): Slight underdog
32 (-1)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1456 (-13)	0-3	at MIN (1531): Lose by 9
prev: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1516): L 10-24: 1469-13→1456
next: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1531): Lose by 9 points
Favorites:
BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CLE, DAL, JAX, LAR,
LV, MIN, NO, NYG, SEA, SF, TB, WAS

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 2, 2026 Season

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1 (+3)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1536 (+21)	2-0	vs ARI (1478): Slight fav
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1491): W 35-13: 1515+21→1536
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1478): Slight favorite
2 (+13)	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1536 (+34)	2-0	at WAS (1478): Slight fav
prev: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1511): W 31-7: 1502+34→1536
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1478): Slight favorite
3 (+6)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1526 (+17)	2-0	at NO (1513): Tossup
prev: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1489): W 26-14: 1509+17→1526
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1513): Tossup
4 (+3)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1524 (+13)	2-0	at TB (1484): Slight fav
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1517): W 9-3: 1511+13→1524
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1484): Slight favorite
5 (+8)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1524 (+20)	2-0	at PIT (1484): Slight fav
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1493): W 20-6: 1504+20→1524
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1484): Slight favorite
6 (+26)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1524 (+41)	1-1	at CLE (1496): Slight fav
prev: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1495): W 34-3: 1483+41→1524
next: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1496): Slight favorite
7 (+11)	New England PatriotsNE	1518 (+20)	1-1	at JAX (1503): Tossup
prev: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1505): W 20-3: 1498+20→1518
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1503): Tossup
8 (+2)	Buffalo BillsBUF	1518 (+11)	2-0	vs LAC (1472): Slight fav
prev: vs Detroit LionsDET (1504): W 41-31: 1507+11→1518
next: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1472): Slight favorite
9 (-4)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1516 (+2)	2-0	at MIA (1469): Slight fav
prev: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1485): W 33-30(OT): 1514+2→1516
next: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1469): Slight favorite
10 (+12)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1514 (+20)	1-1	at BAL (1499): Slight fav
prev: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1498): W 37-20: 1494+20→1514
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1499): Slight favorite
11 (+18)	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1513 (+28)	1-1	at DEN (1499): Tossup
prev: vs New York GiantsNYG (1506): W 28-6: 1485+28→1513
next: at Denver BroncosDEN (1499): Tossup
12 (+7)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1513 (+17)	1-1	vs LV (1526): Tossup
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1515): W 24-17: 1496+17→1513
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1526): Tossup
13 (+3)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1510 (+8)	2-0	at CHI (1504): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1488): W 24-20: 1502+8→1510
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1504): Slight underdog
14 (-13)	Chicago BearsCHI	1504 (-13)	1-1	vs PHI (1510): Slight fav
prev: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1511): L 3-9: 1517-13→1504
next: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1510): Slight favorite
15 (+11)	Green Bay PackersGB	1503 (+14)	1-1	vs ATL (1454): Slight fav
prev: at New York JetsNYJ (1512): W 20-17(OT): 1489+14→1503
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1454): Slight favorite
16 (-14)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1503 (-13)	1-1	vs NE (1518): Tossup
prev: at Denver BroncosDEN (1486): L 13-20: 1516-13→1503
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1518): Tossup
17 (+11)	Denver BroncosDEN	1499 (+13)	1-1	vs LAR (1513): Tossup
prev: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1516): W 20-13: 1486+13→1499
next: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1513): Tossup
18 (-15)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1499 (-16)	1-1	at DAL (1514): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1496): L 17-24: 1515-16→1499
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1514): Slight underdog
19 (-13)	New York JetsNYJ	1497 (-15)	1-1	at DET (1492): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1489): L 17-20(OT): 1512-15→1497
next: at Detroit LionsDET (1492): Slight underdog
20 (+11)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1496 (+12)	1-1	vs CAR (1524): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1496): W 23-19: 1484+12→1496
next: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1524): Slight underdog
21 (-7)	Detroit LionsDET	1492 (-12)	1-1	vs NYJ (1497): Slight fav
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1507): L 31-41: 1504-12→1492
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1497): Slight favorite
22 (-10)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1484 (-21)	1-1	vs CIN (1524): Slight 'dog
prev: at New England PatriotsNE (1498): L 3-20: 1505-21→1484
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1524): Slight underdog
23 (-3)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1484 (-12)	0-2	vs MIN (1524): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1484): L 19-23: 1496-12→1484
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1524): Slight underdog
24 (+6)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1483 (-2)	0-2	vs HOU (1474): Slight fav
prev: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1514): L 30-33(OT): 1485-2→1483
next: vs Houston TexansHOU (1474): Slight favorite
25 (+2)	Tennessee TitansTEN	1480 (-8)	0-2	at NYG (1478): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1502): L 20-24: 1488-8→1480
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1478): Slight underdog
26 (-9)	Washington CommandersWAS	1478 (-20)	0-2	vs SEA (1536): Slight 'dog
prev: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1494): L 20-37: 1498-20→1478
next: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1536): Slight underdog
27 (-19)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1478 (-33)	1-1	at SF (1536): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1502): L 7-31: 1511-33→1478
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1536): Slight underdog
28 (-17)	New York GiantsNYG	1478 (-28)	1-1	vs TEN (1480): Slight fav
prev: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1485): L 6-28: 1506-28→1478
next: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1480): Slight favorite
29 (-6)	Houston TexansHOU	1474 (-19)	0-2	at IND (1483): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1504): L 6-20: 1493-19→1474
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1483): Slight underdog
30 (-5)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1472 (-17)	0-2	at BUF (1518): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1509): L 14-26: 1489-17→1472
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1518): Slight underdog
31 (-7)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1469 (-22)	0-2	vs KC (1516): Slight 'dog
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1515): L 13-35: 1491-22→1469
next: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1516): Slight underdog
32 (-11)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1454 (-41)	0-2	at GB (1503): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1483): L 3-34: 1495-41→1454
next: at Green Bay PackersGB (1503): Slight underdog
Favorites:
BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, DAL, DEN, DET, GB,
IND, JAX, KC, MIN, NO, NYG, SEA, SF

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 1, 2026 Season

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1 (+5)	Chicago BearsCHI	1517 (+17)	1-0	vs MIN (1511): Slight fav
prev: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1500): W 59-37: 1500+17→1517
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1511): Slight favorite
2 (+13)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1516 (+16)	1-0	at DEN (1486): Slight fav
prev: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1500): W 34-10: 1500+16→1516
next: at Denver BroncosDEN (1486): Slight favorite
3	Baltimore RavensBAL	1515 (+15)	1-0	vs NO (1496): Slight fav
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1500): W 41-23: 1500+15→1515
next: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1496): Slight favorite
4 (+24)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1515 (+15)	1-0	vs MIA (1491): Slight fav
prev: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1500): W 27-7: 1500+15→1515
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1491): Slight favorite
5 (+11)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1514 (+14)	1-0	vs IND (1485): Slight fav
prev: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1500): W 31-10: 1500+14→1514
next: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1485): Slight favorite
6 (+19)	New York JetsNYJ	1512 (+12)	1-0	vs GB (1489): Slight fav
prev: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1500): W 23-10: 1500+12→1512
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1489): Slight favorite
7 (+14)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1511 (+11)	1-0	at CHI (1517): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1500): W 39-22: 1500+11→1511
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1517): Slight underdog
8 (-7)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1511 (+11)	1-0	vs SEA (1502): Slight fav
prev: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1500): W 26-14: 1500+11→1511
next: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1502): Slight favorite
9 (+8)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1509 (+9)	1-0	at LAC (1489): Tossup
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1500): W 27-13: 1500+9→1509
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1489): Tossup
10 (-6)	Buffalo BillsBUF	1507 (+7)	1-0	vs DET (1504): Slight fav
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1500): W 36-31: 1500+7→1507
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1504): Slight favorite
11 (+13)	New York GiantsNYG	1506 (+6)	1-0	at LAR (1485): Tossup
prev: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1500): W 28-20: 1500+6→1506
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1485): Tossup
12 (+15)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1505 (+5)	1-0	at NE (1498): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1500): W 20-13: 1500+5→1505
next: at New England PatriotsNE (1498): Slight underdog
13 (-6)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1504 (+4)	1-0	at HOU (1493): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1500): W 33-27: 1500+4→1504
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1493): Slight underdog
14 (-3)	Detroit LionsDET	1504 (+4)	1-0	at BUF (1507): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1500): W 31-30(OT): 1500+4→1504
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1507): Slight underdog
15 (+14)	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1502 (+2)	1-0	at ARI (1511): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1500): W 13-10: 1500+2→1502
next: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1511): Slight underdog
16 (+10)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1502 (+2)	1-0	at TEN (1488): Tossup
prev: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1500): W 24-22: 1500+2→1502
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1488): Tossup
17 (+15)	Washington CommandersWAS	1498 (-2)	0-1	at DAL (1494): Slight 'dog
prev: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1500): L 22-24: 1500-2→1498
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1494): Slight underdog
18 (+4)	New England PatriotsNE	1498 (-2)	0-1	vs PIT (1505): Slight fav
prev: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1500): L 10-13: 1500-2→1498
next: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1505): Slight favorite
19 (+4)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1496 (-4)	0-1	at BAL (1515): Slight 'dog
prev: at Detroit LionsDET (1500): L 30-31(OT): 1500-4→1496
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1515): Slight underdog
20 (+10)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1496 (-4)	0-1	vs CLE (1484): Slight fav
prev: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1500): L 27-33: 1500-4→1496
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1484): Slight favorite
21 (-19)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1495 (-5)	0-1	vs CAR (1483): Slight fav
prev: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1500): L 13-20: 1500-5→1495
next: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1483): Slight favorite
22 (-13)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1494 (-6)	0-1	vs WAS (1498): Slight fav
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1500): L 20-28: 1500-6→1494
next: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1498): Slight favorite
23 (-10)	Houston TexansHOU	1493 (-7)	0-1	vs CIN (1504): Slight fav
prev: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1500): L 31-36: 1500-7→1493
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1504): Slight favorite
24 (-4)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1491 (-9)	0-1	at SF (1515): Slight 'dog
prev: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1500): L 13-27: 1500-9→1491
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1515): Slight underdog
25 (-7)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1489 (-11)	0-1	vs LV (1509): Tossup
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1500): L 14-26: 1500-11→1489
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1509): Tossup
26 (-14)	Green Bay PackersGB	1489 (-11)	0-1	at NYJ (1512): Slight 'dog
prev: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1500): L 22-39: 1500-11→1489
next: at New York JetsNYJ (1512): Slight underdog
27 (+4)	Tennessee TitansTEN	1488 (-12)	0-1	vs PHI (1502): Tossup
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1500): L 10-23: 1500-12→1488
next: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1502): Tossup
28 (-18)	Denver BroncosDEN	1486 (-14)	0-1	vs JAX (1516): Slight 'dog
prev: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1500): L 10-31: 1500-14→1486
next: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1516): Slight underdog
29 (-10)	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1485 (-15)	0-1	vs NYG (1506): Tossup
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1500): L 7-27: 1500-15→1485
next: vs New York GiantsNYG (1506): Tossup
30 (-16)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1485 (-15)	0-1	at KC (1514): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1500): L 23-41: 1500-15→1485
next: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1514): Slight underdog
31 (-23)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1484 (-16)	0-1	at TB (1496): Slight 'dog
prev: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1500): L 10-34: 1500-16→1484
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1496): Slight underdog
32 (-27)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1483 (-17)	0-1	at ATL (1495): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1500): L 37-59: 1500-17→1483
next: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1495): Slight underdog
Favorites:
ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CHI, DAL, HOU, JAX,
KC, LAC, NE, NYG, NYJ, SF, TB, TEN

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Preseason Power Rankings, 2026 season:

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Arizona CardinalsARI	1500	0-0	at LAC (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1500): Slight underdog
2	Atlanta FalconsATL	1500	0-0	at PIT (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1500): Slight underdog
3	Baltimore RavensBAL	1500	0-0	at IND (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1500): Slight underdog
4	Buffalo BillsBUF	1500	0-0	at HOU (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1500): Slight underdog
5	Carolina PanthersCAR	1500	0-0	vs CHI (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1500): Slight favorite
6	Chicago BearsCHI	1500	0-0	at CAR (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1500): Slight underdog
7	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1500	0-0	vs TB (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1500): Slight favorite
8	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1500	0-0	at JAX (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1500): Slight underdog
9	Dallas CowboysDAL	1500	0-0	at NYG (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1500): Slight underdog
10	Denver BroncosDEN	1500	0-0	at KC (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1500): Slight underdog
11	Detroit LionsDET	1500	0-0	vs NO (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1500): Slight favorite
12	Green Bay PackersGB	1500	0-0	at MIN (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1500): Slight underdog
13	Houston TexansHOU	1500	0-0	vs BUF (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1500): Slight favorite
14	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1500	0-0	vs BAL (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1500): Slight favorite
15	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1500	0-0	vs CLE (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1500): Slight favorite
16	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1500	0-0	vs DEN (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1500): Slight favorite
17	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1500	0-0	vs MIA (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1500): Slight favorite
18	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1500	0-0	vs ARI (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1500): Slight favorite
19	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1500	0-0	at SF (1500): Tossup
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1500): Tossup
20	Miami DolphinsMIA	1500	0-0	at LV (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1500): Slight underdog
21	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1500	0-0	vs GB (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1500): Slight favorite
22	New England PatriotsNE	1500	0-0	at SEA (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1500): Slight underdog
23	New Orleans SaintsNO	1500	0-0	at DET (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Detroit LionsDET (1500): Slight underdog
24	New York GiantsNYG	1500	0-0	vs DAL (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1500): Slight favorite
25	New York JetsNYJ	1500	0-0	at TEN (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1500): Slight underdog
26	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1500	0-0	vs WAS (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1500): Slight favorite
27	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1500	0-0	vs ATL (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1500): Slight favorite
28	San Francisco 49ersSF	1500	0-0	at LAR (1500): Tossup
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1500): Tossup
29	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1500	0-0	vs NE (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1500): Slight favorite
30	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1500	0-0	at CIN (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1500): Slight underdog
31	Tennessee TitansTEN	1500	0-0	vs NYJ (1500): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1500): Slight favorite
32	Washington CommandersWAS	1500	0-0	at PHI (1500): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1500): Slight underdog
Favorites:
CAR, CIN, DET, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC,
LV, MIN, NYG, PHI, PIT, SEA, TEN

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Team Summaries for 2026 Season

↑ Arizona Cardinals

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1506 (+14 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1500 \| avg. lost to rating: 1507 \| avg. remaining rating: 1506
1	8	at LAC(1500) W 26-14: +11→1511	9	at SEA	17	vs LV
2	27	vs SEA(1502) L 7-31: -33→1478	10	vs LAR	18	vs SF
3	27	at SF(1536) L 30-36: -1→1477	11	at KC	W
4	31	at NYG(1484) L 24-36: -11→1466	12	vs WAS	D
5		vs DET	13	vs PHI	C
6		at LAR	14	(bye)	S
7		vs DEN	15	vs NYJ
8		at DAL	16	at NO

↑ Atlanta Falcons

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (+13 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1502 \| avg. lost to rating: 1491 \| avg. remaining rating: 1505
1	21	at PIT(1500) L 13-20: -5→1495	9	at CIN	17	vs NO
2	32	vs CAR(1483) L 3-34: -41→1454	10	vs KC	18	at CAR
3	23	at GB(1503) W 35-14: +32→1486	11	(bye)	W
4	12	at NO(1501) W 45-24: +25→1511	12	at MIN	D
5		vs BAL	13	vs DET	C
6		vs CHI	14	at CLE	S
7		vs SF	15	at WAS
8		at TB	16	vs TB

↑ Baltimore Ravens

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1496 (-9 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1496 \| avg. lost to rating: 1496 \| avg. remaining rating: 1500
1	3	at IND(1500) W 41-23: +15→1515	9	vs JAX	17	at CIN
2	18	vs NO(1496) L 17-24: -16→1499	10	vs LAC	18	vs PIT
3	12	at DAL(1514) W 34-31: +8→1507	11	at CAR	W
4	14	vs TEN(1474) W 24-18: +2→1509	12	at HOU	D
5		at ATL	13	(bye)	C
6		at CLE	14	vs TB	S
7		vs CIN	15	at PIT
8		at BUF	16	vs CLE

↑ Buffalo Bills

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1491 (-21 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1492 \| avg. lost to rating: 1487 \| avg. remaining rating: 1501
1	10	at HOU(1500) W 36-31: +7→1507	9	at MIN	17	at MIA
2	8	vs DET(1504) W 41-31: +11→1518	10	at NYJ	18	vs NYJ
3	8	vs LAC(1472) W 24-16: +3→1521	11	vs MIA	W
4	10	vs NE(1487) L 26-29: -10→1511	12	vs KC	D
5		at LAR	13	at NE	C
6		at LV	14	at GB	S
7		(bye)	15	vs CHI
8		vs BAL	16	at DEN

↑ Carolina Panthers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (-8 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1498 \| avg. lost to rating: 1498 \| avg. remaining rating: 1494
1	32	vs CHI(1500) L 37-59: -17→1483	9	vs DEN	17	vs SEA
2	6	at ATL(1495) W 34-3: +41→1524	10	at NO	18	vs ATL
3	9	at CLE(1496) L 18-21: -8→1516	11	vs BAL	W
4	8	vs DET(1501) W 32-26: +5→1521	12	at TB	D
5		(bye)	13	at MIN	C
6		at PHI	14	vs NO	S
7		vs TB	15	vs CIN
8		at GB	16	at PIT

↑ Chicago Bears

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (-9 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1500 \| avg. lost to rating: 1511 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	1	at CAR(1500) W 59-37: +17→1517	9	vs TB	17	vs DET
2	14	vs MIN(1511) L 3-9: -13→1504	10	(bye)	18	at MIN
3	6	vs PHI(1510) W 27-7: +22→1526	11	vs NO	W
4	4	vs NYJ(1489) W 23-12: +6→1532	12	at DET	D
5		at GB	13	vs JAX	C
6		at ATL	14	at MIA	S
7		vs NE	15	at BUF
8		at SEA	16	vs GB

↑ Cincinnati Bengals

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (-8 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1497 \| avg. lost to rating: 1509 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	13	vs TB(1500) W 33-27: +4→1504	9	at ATL	17	vs BAL
2	5	at HOU(1493) W 20-6: +20→1524	10	vs PIT	18	vs CLE
3	10	at PIT(1484) L 27-30: -8→1516	11	at WAS	W
4	13	vs JAX(1534) L 17-22: -7→1509	12	vs NO	D
5		at MIA	13	at CLE	C
6		(bye)	14	vs KC	S
7		at BAL	15	at CAR
8		vs TEN	16	at IND

↑ Cleveland Browns

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+7 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1504 \| avg. lost to rating: 1500 \| avg. remaining rating: 1497
1	31	at JAX(1500) L 10-34: -16→1484	9	at NO	17	vs IND
2	20	at TB(1496) W 23-19: +12→1496	10	vs HOU	18	at CIN
3	15	vs CAR(1524) W 21-18: +8→1504	11	(bye)	W
4	15	vs PIT(1492) W 27-24: +2→1506	12	vs LV	D
5		at NYJ	13	vs CIN	C
6		vs BAL	14	vs ATL	S
7		at TEN	15	at NYG
8		at PIT	16	at BAL

↑ Dallas Cowboys

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1492 (-12 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1485 \| avg. lost to rating: 1499 \| avg. remaining rating: 1496
1	22	at NYG(1500) L 20-28: -6→1494	9	at IND	17	vs NYG
2	10	vs WAS(1498) W 37-20: +20→1514	10	vs SF	18	at WAS
3	13	at BAL(1499) L 31-34: -8→1506	11	vs TEN	W
4	11	at HOU(1472) W 34-30: +5→1511	12	vs PHI	D
5		vs TB	13	at SEA	C
6		at GB	14	(bye)	S
7		at PHI	15	at LAR
8		vs ARI	16	vs JAX

↑ Denver Broncos

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1517 (+19 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1515 \| avg. lost to rating: 1519 \| avg. remaining rating: 1499
1	28	at KC(1500) L 10-31: -14→1486	9	at CAR	17	at NE
2	17	vs JAX(1516) W 20-13: +13→1499	10	(bye)	18	vs LAC
3	14	vs LAR(1513) W 30-26: +7→1506	11	vs LV	W
4	17	at SF(1537) L 14-24: -6→1500	12	at PIT	D
5		at LAC	13	vs MIA	C
6		vs SEA	14	at NYJ	S
7		at ARI	15	at LV
8		vs KC	16	vs BUF

↑ Detroit Lions

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1505 (+6 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1499 \| avg. lost to rating: 1511 \| avg. remaining rating: 1496
1	14	vs NO(1500) W 31-30: +4→1504	9	at MIA	17	at CHI
2	21	at BUF(1507) L 31-41: -12→1492	10	at NE	18	at GB
3	17	vs NYJ(1497) W 31-24: +9→1501	11	vs TB	W
4	19	at CAR(1516) L 26-32: -5→1496	12	vs CHI	D
5		at ARI	13	at ATL	C
6		(bye)	14	vs TEN	S
7		vs GB	15	at MIN
8		vs MIN	16	vs NYG

↑ Green Bay Packers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1486 (-5 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1494 \| avg. lost to rating: 1477 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	26	at MIN(1500) L 22-39: -11→1489	9	at NE	17	vs HOU
2	15	at NYJ(1512) W 20-17: +14→1503	10	vs MIN	18	vs DET
3	30	vs ATL(1454) L 14-35: -32→1471	11	(bye)	W
4	24	at TB(1477) W 17-14: +8→1479	12	at LAR	D
5		vs CHI	13	at NO	C
6		vs DAL	14	vs BUF	S
7		at DET	15	vs MIA
8		vs CAR	16	at CHI

↑ Houston Texans

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (+14 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1498 \| avg. remaining rating: 1494
1	23	vs BUF(1500) L 31-36: -7→1493	9	at LAC	17	at GB
2	29	vs CIN(1504) L 6-20: -19→1474	10	at CLE	18	vs TEN
3	29	at IND(1483) L 17-19: -2→1472	11	vs IND	W
4	30	vs DAL(1506) L 30-34: -5→1467	12	vs BAL	D
5		at TEN	13	at PIT	C
6		at JAX	14	at WAS	S
7		vs NYG	15	vs JAX
8		(bye)	16	at PHI

↑ Indianapolis Colts

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1494 (+6 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1481 \| avg. lost to rating: 1507 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	30	vs BAL(1500) L 23-41: -15→1485	9	vs DAL	17	at CLE
2	24	at KC(1514) L 30-33: -2→1483	10	vs MIA	18	vs JAX
3	24	vs HOU(1474) W 19-17: +2→1485	11	at HOU	W
4	16	at WAS(1488) W 30-13: +18→1503	12	vs NYG	D
5		at PIT	13	(bye)	C
6		vs TEN	14	at PHI	S
7		at MIN	15	at TEN
8		at JAX	16	vs CIN

↑ Jacksonville Jaguars

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1505 (-8 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1512 \| avg. lost to rating: 1486 \| avg. remaining rating: 1490
1	2	vs CLE(1500) W 34-10: +16→1516	9	at BAL	17	vs WAS
2	16	at DEN(1486) L 13-20: -13→1503	10	at TEN	18	at IND
3	3	vs NE(1518) W 35-6: +31→1534	11	at NYG	W
4	2	at CIN(1516) W 22-17: +7→1541	12	vs TEN	D
5		at PHI	13	at CHI	C
6		at HOU	14	vs PIT	S
7		(bye)	15	at HOU
8		vs IND	16	at DAL

↑ Kansas City Chiefs

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (-17 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1498 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1502
1	5	vs DEN(1500) W 31-10: +14→1514	9	vs NYJ	17	at LAC
2	9	vs IND(1485) W 33-30: +2→1516	10	at ATL	18	vs LV
3	5	at MIA(1469) W 24-10: +13→1529	11	vs ARI	W
4	3	at LV(1538) W 30-27: +8→1537	12	at BUF	D
5		(bye)	13	at LAR	C
6		vs LAC	14	at CIN	S
7		at SEA	15	vs NE
8		at DEN	16	vs SF

↑ Las Vegas Raiders

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1508 (-11 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1501 \| avg. lost to rating: 1529 \| avg. remaining rating: 1502
1	9	vs MIA(1500) W 27-13: +9→1509	9	at SF	17	at ARI
2	3	at LAC(1489) W 26-14: +17→1526	10	vs SEA	18	at KC
3	1	at NO(1513) W 35-27: +12→1538	11	at DEN	W
4	5	vs KC(1529) L 27-30: -8→1530	12	at CLE	D
5		at NE	13	(bye)	C
6		vs BUF	14	vs LAC	S
7		vs LAR	15	vs DEN
8		at NYJ	16	vs TEN

↑ Los Angeles Chargers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1513 (+31 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1513 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	25	vs ARI(1500) L 14-26: -11→1489	9	vs HOU	17	vs KC
2	30	vs LV(1509) L 14-26: -17→1472	10	at BAL	18	at DEN
3	31	at BUF(1518) L 16-24: -3→1469	11	vs NYJ	W
4	29	at SEA(1525) L 23-30: -1→1468	12	vs NE	D
5		vs DEN	13	at TB	C
6		at KC	14	at LV	S
7		(bye)	15	vs SF
8		vs LAR	16	at MIA

↑ Los Angeles Rams

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (-3 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1497 \| avg. lost to rating: 1500 \| avg. remaining rating: 1500
1	29	at SF(1500) L 7-27: -15→1485	9	at WAS	17	at TB
2	11	vs NYG(1506) W 28-6: +28→1513	10	at ARI	18	vs SEA
3	11	at DEN(1499) L 26-30: -6→1507	11	(bye)	W
4	9	at PHI(1489) W 24-20: +6→1513	12	vs GB	D
5		vs BUF	13	vs KC	C
6		vs ARI	14	at SF	S
7		at LV	15	vs DAL
8		vs LAC	16	at SEA

↑ Miami Dolphins

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1516 (+37 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1516 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	24	at LV(1500) L 13-27: -9→1491	9	vs DET	17	vs BUF
2	31	at SF(1515) L 13-35: -22→1469	10	at IND	18	at NE
3	32	vs KC(1516) L 10-24: -13→1456	11	at BUF	W
4	32	at MIN(1531) L 10-15: +3→1459	12	vs NYJ	D
5		vs CIN	13	at DEN	C
6		(bye)	14	vs CHI	S
7		at NYJ	15	at GB
8		vs NE	16	vs LAC

↑ Minnesota Vikings

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1489 (-28 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1489 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1501
1	7	vs GB(1500) W 39-22: +11→1511	9	vs BUF	17	at NYJ
2	4	at CHI(1517) W 9-3: +13→1524	10	at GB	18	vs CHI
3	4	at TB(1484) W 23-16: +7→1531	11	at SF	W
4	6	vs MIA(1456) W 15-10: -3→1528	12	vs ATL	D
5		at NO	13	vs CAR	C
6		(bye)	14	at NE	S
7		vs IND	15	vs DET
8		at DET	16	vs WAS

↑ New England Patriots

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1507 (+7 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1513 \| avg. lost to rating: 1501 \| avg. remaining rating: 1497
1	18	at SEA(1500) L 10-13: -2→1498	9	vs GB	17	vs DEN
2	7	vs PIT(1505) W 20-3: +20→1518	10	at DET	18	vs MIA
3	22	at JAX(1503) L 6-35: -31→1487	11	(bye)	W
4	18	at BUF(1521) W 29-26: +10→1497	12	at LAC	D
5		vs LV	13	vs BUF	C
6		vs NYJ	14	vs MIN	S
7		at CHI	15	at KC
8		at MIA	16	at NYJ

↑ New Orleans Saints

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1507 (+4 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1515 \| avg. lost to rating: 1504 \| avg. remaining rating: 1500
1	19	at DET(1500) L 30-31: -4→1496	9	vs CLE	17	at ATL
2	12	at BAL(1515) W 24-17: +17→1513	10	vs CAR	18	vs TB
3	16	vs LV(1526) L 27-35: -12→1501	11	at CHI	W
4	25	vs ATL(1486) L 24-45: -24→1477	12	at CIN	D
5		vs MIN	13	vs GB	C
6		at NYG	14	at CAR	S
7		at PIT	15	at TB
8		(bye)	16	vs ARI

↑ New York Giants

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1486 (-6 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1486 \| avg. lost to rating: 1485 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	11	vs DAL(1500) W 28-20: +6→1506	9	at PHI	17	at DAL
2	28	at LAR(1485) L 6-28: -28→1478	10	vs WAS	18	vs PHI
3	25	vs TEN(1480) W 12-7: +6→1484	11	vs JAX	W
4	20	vs ARI(1477) W 36-24: +10→1494	12	at IND	D
5		at WAS	13	vs SF	C
6		vs NO	14	at SEA	S
7		at HOU	15	vs CLE
8		(bye)	16	at DET

↑ New York Jets

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1502 (+2 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1500 \| avg. lost to rating: 1502 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	6	at TEN(1500) W 23-10: +12→1512	9	at KC	17	vs MIN
2	19	vs GB(1489) L 17-20: -15→1497	10	vs BUF	18	at BUF
3	20	at DET(1492) L 24-31: -8→1489	11	at LAC	W
4	23	at CHI(1526) L 12-23: -7→1482	12	at MIA	D
5		vs CLE	13	(bye)	C
6		at NE	14	vs DEN	S
7		vs MIA	15	at ARI
8		vs LV	16	vs NE

↑ Philadelphia Eagles

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1500 (0 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1494 \| avg. lost to rating: 1505 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	16	vs WAS(1500) W 24-22: +2→1502	9	vs NYG	17	at SF
2	13	at TEN(1488) W 24-20: +8→1510	10	(bye)	18	at NYG
3	19	at CHI(1504) L 7-27: -21→1489	11	vs PIT	W
4	22	vs LAR(1507) L 20-24: -6→1483	12	at DAL	D
5		at JAX	13	at ARI	C
6		vs CAR	14	vs IND	S
7		vs DAL	15	vs SEA
8		at WAS	16	vs HOU

↑ Pittsburgh Steelers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1506 (+11 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1512 \| avg. lost to rating: 1501 \| avg. remaining rating: 1497
1	12	vs ATL(1500) W 20-13: +5→1505	9	(bye)	17	at TEN
2	22	at NE(1498) L 3-20: -21→1484	10	at CIN	18	at BAL
3	18	vs CIN(1524) W 30-27: +8→1492	11	at PHI	W
4	21	at CLE(1504) L 24-27: -2→1490	12	vs DEN	D
5		vs IND	13	vs HOU	C
6		at TB	14	at JAX	S
7		at NO	15	vs BAL
8		vs CLE	16	vs CAR

↑ San Francisco 49ers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1494 (-28 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1494 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1505
1	4	at LAR(1500) W 27-7: +15→1515	9	vs LV	17	vs PHI
2	1	vs MIA(1491) W 35-13: +21→1536	10	at DAL	18	at ARI
3	2	vs ARI(1478) W 36-30: +1→1537	11	at MIN	W
4	1	vs DEN(1506) W 24-14: +6→1543	12	vs SEA	D
5		at SEA	13	at NYG	C
6		vs WAS	14	vs LAR	S
7		at ATL	15	at LAC
8		(bye)	16	at KC

↑ Seattle Seahawks

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1490 (-26 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1493 \| avg. lost to rating: 1478 \| avg. remaining rating: 1514
1	15	vs NE(1500) W 13-10: +2→1502	9	vs ARI	17	at CAR
2	2	at ARI(1511) W 31-7: +34→1536	10	at LV	18	at LAR
3	7	at WAS(1478) L 31-33: -11→1525	11	(bye)	W
4	7	vs LAC(1469) W 30-23: +1→1526	12	at SF	D
5		vs SF	13	vs DAL	C
6		at DEN	14	vs NYG	S
7		vs KC	15	at PHI
8		vs CHI	16	vs LAR

↑ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1495 (+6 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1495 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	20	at CIN(1500) L 27-33: -4→1496	9	at CHI	17	vs LAR
2	23	vs CLE(1484) L 19-23: -12→1484	10	(bye)	18	at NO
3	26	vs MIN(1524) L 16-23: -7→1477	11	at DET	W
4	28	vs GB(1471) L 14-17: -8→1469	12	vs CAR	D
5		at DAL	13	vs LAC	C
6		vs PIT	14	at BAL	S
7		at CAR	15	vs NO
8		vs ATL	16	at ATL

↑ Tennessee Titans

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (+11 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1497 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	27	vs NYJ(1500) L 10-23: -12→1488	9	(bye)	17	vs PIT
2	25	vs PHI(1502) L 20-24: -8→1480	10	vs JAX	18	at HOU
3	28	at NYG(1478) L 7-12: -6→1474	11	at DAL	W
4	26	at BAL(1507) L 18-24: -3→1471	12	at JAX	D
5		vs HOU	13	vs WAS	C
6		at IND	14	at DET	S
7		vs CLE	15	vs IND
8		at CIN	16	at LV

↑ Washington Commanders

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (+13 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1536 \| avg. lost to rating: 1493 \| avg. remaining rating: 1502
1	17	at PHI(1500) L 22-24: -2→1498	9	vs LAR	17	at JAX
2	26	at DAL(1494) L 20-37: -20→1478	10	at NYG	18	vs DAL
3	21	vs SEA(1536) W 33-31: +10→1488	11	vs CIN	W
4	27	at IND(1485) L 13-30: -18→1470	12	at ARI	D
5		vs NYG	13	at TEN	C
6		at SF	14	vs HOU	S
7		(bye)	15	vs ATL
8		vs PHI	16	at MIN

↑ 2026 Season Stats and Tidbits

Longest Elo Hot Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating increase
1. 4 games (weeks 1-4) San Francisco 49ers: +43 total Elo rating
2. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Kansas City Chiefs: +37 total Elo rating
3. 3 games (weeks 2-4) Cleveland Browns: +22 total Elo rating
4. 2 games (weeks 3-4) Atlanta Falcons: +57 total Elo rating
5. 2 games (weeks 3-4) Jacksonville Jaguars: +38 total Elo rating
Longest Elo Cold Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating decrease
1. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Houston Texans: -33 total Elo rating
2. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Los Angeles Chargers: -32 total Elo rating
3. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -31 total Elo rating
4. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Tennessee Titans: -29 total Elo rating
5. 3 games (weeks 2-4) Arizona Cardinals: -45 total Elo rating
Biggest Elo Upsets: Highest Elo rating disparity between teams
1. Week 3, 58-Elo upset: Seattle Seahawks (1536) Tossup favorites at Washington Commanders (1478): Commanders win 33-31
2. Week 3, 49-Elo upset: Green Bay Packers (1503) Tossup favorites vs Atlanta Falcons (1454): Falcons win 35-14
3. Week 3, 40-Elo upset: Cincinnati Bengals (1524) Tossup favorites at Pittsburgh Steelers (1484): Steelers win 30-27
4. Week 4, 34-Elo upset: Buffalo Bills (1521) Tossup favorites vs New England Patriots (1487): Patriots win 29-26
5. Week 2, 30-Elo upset: Jacksonville Jaguars (1516) Tossup favorites at Denver Broncos (1486): Broncos win 20-13
Biggest Elo Score Upsets: Highest disparity between expected and actual game outcome
1. Week 2, 31-point differential: Atlanta Falcons (1495) Tossup favorites vs Carolina Panthers (1483): Panthers win 34-3
2. Week 3, 21-point differential: Green Bay Packers (1503) Tossup favorites vs Atlanta Falcons (1454): Falcons win 35-14
3. Week 2, 24-point differential: Arizona Cardinals (1511) Tossup favorites vs Seattle Seahawks (1502): Seahawks win 31-7
4. Week 4, 21-point differential: New Orleans Saints (1501) Tossup favorites vs Atlanta Falcons (1486): Falcons win 45-24
5. Week 1, 22-point differential: Carolina Panthers (1500) Tossup favorites vs Chicago Bears (1500): Bears win 59-37
Most Improved Elo on the Season:
1. +43: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1543) thru week 4
2. +41: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1541) thru week 4
3. +37: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1537) thru week 4
4. +32: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1532) thru week 4
5. +30: Las Vegas Raiders (1500) before week 1 → (1530) thru week 4
more...
1. +28: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 4
2. +26: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1526) thru week 4
3. +21: Carolina Panthers (1500) before week 1 → (1521) thru week 4
4. +13: Los Angeles Rams (1500) before week 1 → (1513) thru week 4
5. +11: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
6. +11: Dallas Cowboys (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
7. +11: Atlanta Falcons (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
8. +9: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1509) thru week 4
9. +9: Baltimore Ravens (1500) before week 1 → (1509) thru week 4
10. +6: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 4
11. +3: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 4
12. +0: Denver Broncos (1500) before week 1 → (1500) thru week 4
13. -3: New England Patriots (1500) before week 1 → (1497) thru week 4
14. -4: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
15. -6: New York Giants (1500) before week 1 → (1494) thru week 4
16. -10: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1490) thru week 4
17. -17: Philadelphia Eagles (1500) before week 1 → (1483) thru week 4
18. -18: New York Jets (1500) before week 1 → (1482) thru week 4
19. -21: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1479) thru week 4
20. -23: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1477) thru week 4
21. -29: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1471) thru week 4
22. -30: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1470) thru week 4
23. -31: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500) before week 1 → (1469) thru week 4
24. -32: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1468) thru week 4
25. -33: Houston Texans (1500) before week 1 → (1467) thru week 4
26. -34: Arizona Cardinals (1500) before week 1 → (1466) thru week 4
27. -41: Miami Dolphins (1500) before week 1 → (1459) thru week 4
Worst Elo Collapse on the Season:
1. -41: Miami Dolphins (1500) before week 1 → (1459) thru week 4
2. -34: Arizona Cardinals (1500) before week 1 → (1466) thru week 4
3. -33: Houston Texans (1500) before week 1 → (1467) thru week 4
4. -32: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1468) thru week 4
5. -31: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500) before week 1 → (1469) thru week 4
more...
1. -30: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1470) thru week 4
2. -29: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1471) thru week 4
3. -23: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1477) thru week 4
4. -21: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1479) thru week 4
5. -18: New York Jets (1500) before week 1 → (1482) thru week 4
6. -17: Philadelphia Eagles (1500) before week 1 → (1483) thru week 4
7. -10: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1490) thru week 4
8. -6: New York Giants (1500) before week 1 → (1494) thru week 4
9. -4: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
10. -3: New England Patriots (1500) before week 1 → (1497) thru week 4
11. -0: Denver Broncos (1500) before week 1 → (1500) thru week 4
12. +3: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 4
13. +6: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 4
14. +9: Baltimore Ravens (1500) before week 1 → (1509) thru week 4
15. +9: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1509) thru week 4
16. +11: Atlanta Falcons (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
17. +11: Dallas Cowboys (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
18. +11: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1511) thru week 4
19. +13: Los Angeles Rams (1500) before week 1 → (1513) thru week 4
20. +21: Carolina Panthers (1500) before week 1 → (1521) thru week 4
21. +26: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1526) thru week 4
22. +28: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 4
23. +30: Las Vegas Raiders (1500) before week 1 → (1530) thru week 4
24. +32: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1532) thru week 4
25. +37: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1537) thru week 4
26. +41: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1541) thru week 4
27. +43: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1543) thru week 4
Most Improved Elo in 8 or Fewer Games:
1. +57: Atlanta Falcons (1454) before week 3 → (1511) thru week 4
2. +43: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1543) thru week 4
3. +41: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1541) thru week 4
4. +38: Carolina Panthers (1483) before week 2 → (1521) thru week 4
5. +38: Las Vegas Raiders (1500) before week 1 → (1538) thru week 3
more...
1. +37: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1537) thru week 4
2. +36: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1536) thru week 2
3. +32: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1532) thru week 4
4. +31: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1531) thru week 3
5. +27: Los Angeles Rams (1485) before week 2 → (1513) thru week 4
6. +24: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1524) thru week 2
7. +22: Cleveland Browns (1484) before week 2 → (1506) thru week 4
8. +21: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1521) thru week 3
9. +20: Denver Broncos (1486) before week 2 → (1506) thru week 3
10. +20: Indianapolis Colts (1483) before week 3 → (1503) thru week 4
11. +18: New England Patriots (1500) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 2
12. +17: New York Giants (1478) before week 3 → (1494) thru week 4
13. +16: Dallas Cowboys (1494) before week 2 → (1511) thru week 4
14. +13: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1513) thru week 2
15. +11: Baltimore Ravens (1499) before week 3 → (1509) thru week 4
16. +10: Philadelphia Eagles (1500) before week 1 → (1510) thru week 2
17. +5: Pittsburgh Steelers (1484) before week 3 → (1490) thru week 4
18. +4: Detroit Lions (1492) before week 3 → (1496) thru week 4
19. +3: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 2
20. -3: New York Jets (1500) before week 1 → (1497) thru week 2
21. -4: Los Angeles Chargers (1472) before week 3 → (1468) thru week 4
22. -6: Houston Texans (1474) before week 3 → (1467) thru week 4
23. -8: Washington Commanders (1478) before week 3 → (1470) thru week 4
24. -9: Tennessee Titans (1480) before week 3 → (1471) thru week 4
25. -10: Miami Dolphins (1469) before week 3 → (1459) thru week 4
26. -12: Arizona Cardinals (1478) before week 3 → (1466) thru week 4
27. -15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1484) before week 3 → (1469) thru week 4
Worst Elo Collapse in 8 or Fewer Games:
1. -46: Atlanta Falcons (1500) before week 1 → (1454) thru week 2
2. -45: Arizona Cardinals (1511) before week 2 → (1466) thru week 4
3. -44: Miami Dolphins (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 3
4. -36: New Orleans Saints (1513) before week 3 → (1477) thru week 4
5. -33: Houston Texans (1500) before week 1 → (1467) thru week 4
more...
1. -32: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1468) thru week 4
2. -31: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500) before week 1 → (1469) thru week 4
3. -30: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1470) thru week 4
4. -29: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1471) thru week 3
5. -29: New York Jets (1512) before week 2 → (1482) thru week 4
6. -29: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1471) thru week 4
7. -28: Philadelphia Eagles (1510) before week 3 → (1483) thru week 4
8. -22: New York Giants (1506) before week 2 → (1484) thru week 3
9. -21: New England Patriots (1518) before week 3 → (1497) thru week 4
10. -17: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1483) thru week 2
11. -16: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1484) thru week 2
12. -15: Cincinnati Bengals (1524) before week 3 → (1509) thru week 4
13. -10: Seattle Seahawks (1536) before week 3 → (1526) thru week 4
14. -8: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1492) thru week 2
15. -8: Baltimore Ravens (1515) before week 2 → (1507) thru week 3
16. -7: Buffalo Bills (1518) before week 3 → (1511) thru week 4
17. -4: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 2
18. -4: Dallas Cowboys (1514) before week 3 → (1511) thru week 4
19. -3: Carolina Panthers (1524) before week 3 → (1521) thru week 4
20. -1: Denver Broncos (1500) before week 1 → (1499) thru week 2
21. -0: Los Angeles Rams (1513) before week 3 → (1513) thru week 4
22. +-3: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 2
23. +-3: Las Vegas Raiders (1526) before week 3 → (1530) thru week 4
24. +-4: Minnesota Vikings (1524) before week 3 → (1528) thru week 4
25. +-4: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1504) thru week 2
26. +-7: San Francisco 49ers (1536) before week 3 → (1543) thru week 4
27. +-15: Kansas City Chiefs (1514) before week 2 → (1529) thru week 3
Strongest Average Opponent Rating:
1. Denver Broncos: 1517
2. Miami Dolphins: 1516
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 1513
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 1508
5. New England Patriots: 1507
more...
1. New Orleans Saints: 1507
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1506
3. Arizona Cardinals: 1506
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1505
5. Detroit Lions: 1505
6. Washington Commanders: 1504
7. Cincinnati Bengals: 1503
8. Cleveland Browns: 1503
9. Chicago Bears: 1503
10. New York Jets: 1502
11. Philadelphia Eagles: 1500
12. Los Angeles Rams: 1498
13. Houston Texans: 1498
14. Kansas City Chiefs: 1498
15. Carolina Panthers: 1498
16. Atlanta Falcons: 1497
17. Tennessee Titans: 1497
18. Baltimore Ravens: 1496
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1495
20. Indianapolis Colts: 1494
21. San Francisco 49ers: 1494
22. Dallas Cowboys: 1492
23. Buffalo Bills: 1491
24. Seattle Seahawks: 1490
25. Minnesota Vikings: 1489
26. Green Bay Packers: 1486
27. New York Giants: 1486
Weakest Average Opponent Rating:
1. New York Giants: 1486
2. Green Bay Packers: 1486
3. Minnesota Vikings: 1489
4. Seattle Seahawks: 1490
5. Buffalo Bills: 1491
more...
1. Dallas Cowboys: 1492
2. San Francisco 49ers: 1494
3. Indianapolis Colts: 1494
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1495
5. Baltimore Ravens: 1496
6. Tennessee Titans: 1497
7. Atlanta Falcons: 1497
8. Carolina Panthers: 1498
9. Kansas City Chiefs: 1498
10. Houston Texans: 1498
11. Los Angeles Rams: 1498
12. Philadelphia Eagles: 1500
13. New York Jets: 1502
14. Chicago Bears: 1503
15. Cleveland Browns: 1503
16. Cincinnati Bengals: 1503
17. Washington Commanders: 1504
18. Detroit Lions: 1505
19. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1505
20. Arizona Cardinals: 1506
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1506
22. New Orleans Saints: 1507
23. New England Patriots: 1507
24. Las Vegas Raiders: 1508
25. Los Angeles Chargers: 1513
26. Miami Dolphins: 1516
27. Denver Broncos: 1517
Strongest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
1. Washington Commanders: 1536
2. New Orleans Saints: 1515
3. Denver Broncos: 1515
4. New England Patriots: 1513
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1512
more...
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1512
2. Cleveland Browns: 1504
3. Atlanta Falcons: 1502
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 1501
5. Arizona Cardinals: 1500
6. New York Jets: 1500
7. Chicago Bears: 1500
8. Detroit Lions: 1499
9. Kansas City Chiefs: 1498
10. Carolina Panthers: 1498
11. Los Angeles Rams: 1497
12. Cincinnati Bengals: 1497
13. Baltimore Ravens: 1496
14. Philadelphia Eagles: 1494
15. Green Bay Packers: 1494
16. San Francisco 49ers: 1494
17. Seattle Seahawks: 1493
18. Buffalo Bills: 1492
19. Minnesota Vikings: 1489
20. New York Giants: 1486
21. Dallas Cowboys: 1485
22. Indianapolis Colts: 1481
23. Houston Texans: 0
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0
25. Miami Dolphins: 0
26. Los Angeles Chargers: 0
27. Tennessee Titans: 0
Weakest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
1. Tennessee Titans: 0
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 0
3. Miami Dolphins: 0
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0
5. Houston Texans: 0
more...
1. Indianapolis Colts: 1481
2. Dallas Cowboys: 1485
3. New York Giants: 1486
4. Minnesota Vikings: 1489
5. Buffalo Bills: 1492
6. Seattle Seahawks: 1493
7. San Francisco 49ers: 1494
8. Green Bay Packers: 1494
9. Philadelphia Eagles: 1494
10. Baltimore Ravens: 1496
11. Cincinnati Bengals: 1497
12. Los Angeles Rams: 1497
13. Carolina Panthers: 1498
14. Kansas City Chiefs: 1498
15. Detroit Lions: 1499
16. Chicago Bears: 1500
17. New York Jets: 1500
18. Arizona Cardinals: 1500
19. Las Vegas Raiders: 1501
20. Atlanta Falcons: 1502
21. Cleveland Browns: 1504
22. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1512
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1512
24. New England Patriots: 1513
25. Denver Broncos: 1515
26. New Orleans Saints: 1515
27. Washington Commanders: 1536

↑ 2026 Season Model Accuracy

Week	Winners Picked	Running Total
1	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)
2	5-11 (5/16, 31.25%)	15-17 (15/32, 46.88%)
3	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)	25-23 (25/48, 52.08%)
4	11-5 (11/16, 68.75%)	36-28 (36/64, 56.25%)

↑ Introduction and Background

This page shows week-by-week NFL power rankings, based on the Elo rating system. The Elo rating system is a fair way to judge to relative strength of competitors, and is therefore an objective way to create NFL power rankings.

The Elo rating system is most notably used for rating chess players. It can be used to calculate the expected winning percentage in a multi- game chess match, where players with similar ratings are expected to win or draw about 50% of games against each other. After a match, player ratings are adjusted based on their actual vs. expected winning percentage.

In applying Elo ratings to football, we can consider each game as a series of drives. If one team "wins" most of the drives within a game, they'll likely end up with a large margin of victory. If both teams "win" the same number of drives, the margin of victory will likely be much more narrow. Therefore, team ratings can be used to calculate an expected margin of victory for the favored team. After a game, the two teams' Elo ratings are adjusted based on the actual vs. expected margin of victory. See the FAQ page for more background.

This "blank slate" Elo rating model was tuned by backtesting against NFL games from 1994 through 2025. Over that span it correctly picks winners in 64.19% of games, trailing the regular (non blank slate) model's straight-up pick rate of 65.67% and the Vegas straight-up pick rate of 66.64% (according to covers.com/sportsoddshistory). This model also does well compared to the average picker at NFL Picks Page. That being said, these ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes. The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its accuracy for the current or future seasons.

Have more questions? See the FAQ page.

Elo rating details:

An "average" rating is 1500.
For every game, the better-performing team takes some number of Elo rating points from its opponent.
Predictions and rating updates are calculated from:
- margin of victory/defeat,
- home field advantage,
- rest/travel days between games,
- whether an overtime period occurred,
- offseason "parity reset" (reversion to the mean),
- early season shenanigans/uncertainty,
- division alignment (whether a game is a division matchup),
- whether a game is meaningless with respect to playoff seeding,
- and of course both teams' ratings.
The losing team can gain Elo rating points, as long as they perform above expectations.
The winning team can lose Elo rating points if they perform below expectations.
Elo ratings do not move much from week to week. This minimizes the overreaction from upsets. Like all model parameters, this has been carefully adjusted to make the model more accurate.
Offseason "parity reset": team ratings move a little bit toward the average during the offseason.
Each week's ratings are based on the previous week's ratings in a chain going back to the start of the 1992 season — although only the last ~20 games have any real impact on current ratings with the most recent ~10 being by far the most significant. The model looks back to the 1992 season solely for testing purposes: after allowing for the 1992 and 1993 seasons to play out, the Elo rating model is tested for accuracy against all games since week 1 of the 1994 season.
While it would be fun to look at historic data, at this time there is no plan to include 1991 or older seasons in the model search process, nor to publish 2019 or older seasons.
If you see an unequal number of Elo rating points moved from one team to another after games, it's because ratings are actually decimal values and are only rounded for display here.

2026 Updates

2026 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- A new "v4.2026.07" model was found, and it's the most accurate model yet over the last 25 seasons. It also fixes the misbehavior of last year's "v3.2025.06" model. See more details in the 2026 preseason blog post.
- A new blank slate model, "blank-slate-v3.2026.08", was found. This new blank slate model picks 5,454 game winners over the 8,498 games from 1994-2025 (64.19%), which is a nice improvement over the "blank-slate-v1.2024.07" model that picks 5,390 game winners (63.43%) over that span. That's an average of exactly 2 more game winners picked per season.

2025 Updates

2026-01-03 - Reverted to last year's "v2.2024.07" model. See the 2025 blog post for more details. The "v3.2025.06" 2025 rankings are available here.
2025 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- An improved "v3.2025.06" model was found after a much bigger automated model search where 10 million models were evaluated for each of the regular, "never lose Elo for a win," and "blank slate" model types. The new "v3.2025.06" model is a "regular" model, and was more accurate than the new best found "never lose Elo for a win" and "blank slate" models. It picks a net 2.3 more game winners correctly per season from 1994 through 2024 than last year's "v2.2024.07" model. See more details in the 2025 preseason blog post.
- Added "frozen" versions of last year's season pages, as they appeared after the Super Bowl in February in 2025. There are links to the frozen pages near the top of the above linked blog post.

2024 Updates

2024-11-14 - Added separate "never lose Elo for a win" pages, where the favorite loses 0 Elo rating points for a win by the expected margin or less. They are slightly less accurate than the regular model for now (picking 0.75 fewer game winners per season).
2024-11-12 - Added separate "no margin of victory" pages, where the winning team always takes Elo rating points from the losing team. They are less accurate than the regular model (picking 3.9 fewer game winners per season) but are popularly requested on Reddit.
2024 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- After testing millions of models, found an improved model, called "v2.2024.07", that picks a net 3.5+ more game winners correctly per season (from 2012 through 2023). This new model is now being used for all season pages. See more details in this blog post.
- Added "frozen" versions of last year's season pages, as they appeared after the Super Bowl in February in 2024. See the 2024 season blog post for links to those frozen pages.
- Added the "Season Model Accuracy" section.
- Expanded many of the items in the "Season Stats and Tidbits" section to list all 32 teams.
- Found a separate, better model for the "blank slate" pages where all teams start each season with a 1500 rating (like the 2024-only page).

2023 Updates

2023-11-28 - Improvements to the plumbing behind the scenes, which among other things now allows for each team's full schedule to be shown in the season summary section.
2023-11-15 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,038 game winners (out of 3,124 total games) from 2012w1-2023w10, where the previous best model picked 2,032 winners.
- Applies a curve to increase the Elo scores earned from small-to-medium margins of victory, effectively tilting the balance more toward winning in general and away from large margins of victory. See more details in this post.
- Increases the "Elo score" earned for a "narrow win" (again, increasing the importance of wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory).
- Widens the definition of a "narrow win" and awards a linearly-increasing Elo score for those.
- Slightly increases the Elo score earned from an overtime victory.
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- The ratings and rankings change only slightly from the previous model, following 2023w10:
  - the Chiefs are now rated ~2 Elo points higher than the Bills, up from <1 point
  - the Lions overtake the Bengals in the rankings, moving from 8th to 7th
  - the Bengals drop from 7th to 8th
  - the Dolphins overtake the Chargers in the rankings, moving from 10th to 9th
  - the Chargers drop from 9th to 10th
  - the Eagles are now 20 Elo rating points behind the 1st place 49ers, where previously they were 25 points behind
2023-11-13 - Added average opponent rating info to team summaries and to the season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
2023-11-07 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,024 game winners (out of 3,110 total games) from 2012w1-2023w9, where the previous best model picked 2,020 winners.
- Uses a larger Elo "k factor" to react more strongly to individual games.
- Decreases the "big win" margin of victory, effectively increasing the importance of wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory.
- Slightly increases the strength of the "offseason parity reset."
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- Ranks teams closer to where a human might rank them after 2023w9:
  - the Bills drop from 2nd to 4th
  - the Ravens move from 3rd to 2nd
  - the Eagles move from 4th to 3rd
  - the Dolphins drop from 9th to 11th
  - the Lions move from 10th to 9th
  - the Jaguars move from 11th to 10th
- Also added the 2010 season, which allows using the 2012 season for backtesting the model.
2023-10-31 - Added power rank to season summary tables.
2023-10-29 - Added longest Elo hot/cold streaks to season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
2023-10-26 - Added new per-team season summaries toward the bottom of the page. Team names and week numbers are clickable to easily jump around between the power ranking and season summary sections.
2023-10-23 - Added "Stats and Tidbids" section at the bottom of the page. More coming soon.
2023-10-23 - Fixed conversion of expected Elo score to margin of victory football points in upcoming games. This doesn't affect the model, only the displayed point values.
2023-10-16 - A more dramatic model update: team ratings change more rapidly, yet I was able to optimize the model to pick the same number of game winners as the previous model. I wrote a little more background on my blog post. Changes to the post-week 5 rankings include:
- the Bills drop from 1st to 2nd
- the 49ers move from 2nd to 1st
- the Lions move from 8th to 6th
- the Dolphins move from 11th to 10th
- the Jaguars move from 17th to 14th
- the Jets move from 23rd to 20th
- the Ravens drop from 6th to 9th
- the Saints drop from 10th to 11th
- the Patriots drop from 21st to 26th
Overall, the new model seems to rank the teams closer to where a human would. While both this new model and the previous model pick 1822 winners correctly out of 2785 games since week 1 of the 2013 season, the previous model has a median "elo score" differential of 0.1152 over those games, where the new model is slightly higher at 0.1177. I'll continue to test tweaks to the model.
2023-10-11 - Tiny model improvements, and home-vs-away fixes (these fixes don't alter the current power rankings).
2023-10-10 - After lots of feedback on reddit, mostly saying that previous seasons shouldn't matter so much, I went back to the drawing board to look at the "offseason parity reset." Moving to a slightly bigger offseason reset appears to result in rankings that look better to the eye in the early part of the season. Plus, it increases the accuracy of the model when backtested over all games since 2013: the median "Elo score" differential decreased from 0.1168 to 0.1158, and the rate of incorrectly-picked winners decreased from 35.0449% to 34.7935%.

With this change, the post-week-5 rankings have the Lions moving up from 11th to 8th, the Dolphins moving up from 13th to 11th, the Jaguars moving from 19th to 17th, and other minor moves.
2023-10-09 - Improved handling of bye and offseason weeks for the "prev:" display.
2023-10-06 - Added +/- "since last week" fields to the Rank and Elo Rating columns.
2023-10-05 - I found some knobs I could adjust in my Elo model that both increased its accuracy and also made the current (2023 after week 4) rankings look better to my eye. More adjustments that fulfill both of those requirements could be made in the future, if any are found. But depending on feedback I receive I'll leave the Elo rating algorithm to stand pat for now.

These changes increased the rate at which winners were predicted since 2013 (up to 65% from 64%) and decreased the median "Elo score" (where a blowout loss is 0.0, a tie is 0.5, and a blowout win is 1.0) differential between estimated and actual performance from 0.17 to 0.12 (in other words, the model predicted game score differential more accurately).

As for the "eye test" improvements, for the rankings following 2023 week 4, the Lions moved up from 21st to 12th, the Dolphins moved up from 17th to 13th, the Patriots moved down from 9th to 15th, the Packers moved down from 8th to 10th, the Jaguars moved up from 28th to 20th, the 49ers moved up from 3rd to 2nd, etc.
2023-10-05 - Added two more seasons to the model: 2011 and 2012. I realized I wanted to use 10 full seasons to backtest the Elo rating model, but the first and perhaps second seasons aren't useful for backtesting because all teams are clustered around the initial 1500 rating. Now that ratings are initially computed for the 2011 and 2012 seasons, all games from 2013 onward are used for backtesting model updates.

These ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes. The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its accuracy for the current or future seasons.

The schedule on this page is derived from Pro-Football-Reference.com, with weekly scores data from nflverse and some hand-entered scores.

The data on these pages was at one point derived from Wikipedia NFL teams' pages. I donate to Wikipedia annually. If you value free access to information on the web, or have recently found Wikipedia useful, I encourage you to do so as well.

If you enjoy reading these power rankings, check out the discussion in my weekly posts in the r/nfl subreddit or leave a small tip. Thanks!

NFL Elo Power Rankings 2026

This is the 2026-ONLY "Blank Slate" page

Contents

↑ Power Rankings After Week 4, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 3, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 2, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 1, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Preseason Power Rankings, 2026 season:

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Team Summaries for 2026 Season

↑ Arizona Cardinals

↑ Atlanta Falcons

↑ Baltimore Ravens

↑ Buffalo Bills

↑ Carolina Panthers

↑ Chicago Bears

↑ Cincinnati Bengals

↑ Cleveland Browns

↑ Dallas Cowboys

↑ Denver Broncos

↑ Detroit Lions

↑ Green Bay Packers

↑ Houston Texans

↑ Indianapolis Colts

↑ Jacksonville Jaguars

↑ Kansas City Chiefs

↑ Las Vegas Raiders

↑ Los Angeles Chargers

↑ Los Angeles Rams

↑ Miami Dolphins

↑ Minnesota Vikings

↑ New England Patriots

↑ New Orleans Saints

↑ New York Giants

↑ New York Jets

↑ Philadelphia Eagles

↑ Pittsburgh Steelers

↑ San Francisco 49ers

↑ Seattle Seahawks

↑ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

↑ Tennessee Titans

↑ Washington Commanders

↑ 2026 Season Stats and Tidbits

↑ 2026 Season Model Accuracy

↑ Introduction and Background