NFL Elo Power Rankings 2026

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Mandel

NFL Elo Power Rankings 2026

Weekly NFL power rankings based on the Elo rating system. Read more here.

Note: I'll try to update this page at least weekly during the NFL season, usually on Tuesdays. Want to compete against this Elo model? Join my public straight-up picks pool at nflpickspage.com. If you enjoy reading these power rankings you can check out the discussion in my weekly posts in the r/nfl subreddit or leave a small tip. Thanks!

After Week 4
After Week 3
After Week 2
After Week 1
Before Week 1
2026 Summaries by Team
2026 Stats and Tidbits
2026 Model Accuracy

← 2025 Season NFL Elo Home

↑ Power Rankings After Week 4, 2026 Season

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Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1645 (-13)	3-1	vs SF (1585): Win by 4
prev: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1450): W 30-23: 1658-13→1645
next: vs San Francisco 49ersSF (1585): Win by 4 points
2 (+1)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1608 (+6)	3-1	at PHI (1496): Win by 6
prev: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1509): W 22-17: 1602+6→1608
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1496): Win by 6 points
3 (+1)	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1592 (+4)	2-2	vs BUF (1586): Slight fav
prev: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1500): W 24-20: 1588+4→1592
next: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1586): Slight favorite
4 (-2)	Buffalo BillsBUF	1586 (-20)	3-1	at LAR (1592): Slight 'dog
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1553): L 26-29: 1606-20→1586
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1592): Slight underdog
5	San Francisco 49ersSF	1585 (+16)	4-0	at SEA (1645): Lose by 4
prev: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1566): W 24-14: 1569+16→1585
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1645): Lose by 4 points
6 (+3)	New England PatriotsNE	1573 (+20)	2-2	vs LV (1462): Win by 8
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1606): W 29-26: 1553+20→1573
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1462): Win by 8 points
7 (+3)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1556 (+6)	4-0	bye
prev: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1468): W 30-27: 1550+6→1556
next: (bye)
8	Chicago BearsCHI	1556	3-1	at GB (1456): Slight fav
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1398): W 23-12: 1556-0→1556
next: at Green Bay PackersGB (1456): Slight favorite
9 (-3)	Denver BroncosDEN	1550 (-16)	2-2	at LAC (1463): Slight fav
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1569): L 14-24: 1566-16→1550
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1463): Slight favorite
10 (-3)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1549 (-15)	4-0	at NO (1414): Win by 5
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1379): W 15-10: 1564-15→1549
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1414): Win by 5 points
11 (+5)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1526 (+29)	2-2	at PIT (1478): Slight 'dog
prev: at Washington CommandersWAS (1465): W 30-13: 1497+29→1526
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1478): Slight underdog
12 (-1)	Detroit LionsDET	1518 (-15)	2-2	at ARI (1403): Win by 3
prev: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1491): L 26-32: 1533-15→1518
next: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1403): Win by 3 points
13 (-1)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1517 (-12)	3-1	at ATL (1508): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1357): W 24-18: 1529-12→1517
next: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1508): Slight underdog
14 (+7)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1508 (+40)	2-2	vs BAL (1517): Slight fav
prev: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1455): W 45-24: 1468+40→1508
next: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1517): Slight favorite
15 (+2)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1506 (+15)	2-2	bye
prev: vs Detroit LionsDET (1533): W 32-26: 1491+15→1506
next: (bye)
16 (-2)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1503 (-6)	2-2	at MIA (1394): Slight fav
prev: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1602): L 17-22: 1509-6→1503
next: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1394): Slight favorite
17 (+2)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1500 (+22)	2-2	vs TB (1428): Win by 6
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1517): W 34-30: 1478+22→1500
next: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1428): Win by 6 points
18 (-3)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1496 (-4)	2-2	at JAX (1608): Lose by 6
prev: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1588): L 20-24: 1500-4→1496
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1608): Lose by 6 points
19 (-6)	Houston TexansHOU	1496 (-21)	0-4	at TEN (1368): Slight fav
prev: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1478): L 30-34: 1517-21→1496
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1368): Slight favorite
20 (-2)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1478 (-5)	2-2	vs IND (1526): Slight fav
prev: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1461): L 24-27: 1483-5→1478
next: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1526): Slight favorite
21 (+2)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1466 (+5)	3-1	at NYJ (1398): Slight fav
prev: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1483): W 27-24: 1461+5→1466
next: at New York JetsNYJ (1398): Slight favorite
22 (+4)	New York GiantsNYG	1465 (+16)	3-1	at WAS (1435): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1419): W 36-24: 1449+16→1465
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1435): Slight underdog
23 (+2)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1463 (+13)	0-4	vs DEN (1550): Slight 'dog
prev: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1658): L 23-30: 1450+13→1463
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1550): Slight underdog
24 (-4)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1462 (-6)	3-1	at NE (1573): Lose by 8
prev: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1550): L 27-30: 1468-6→1462
next: at New England PatriotsNE (1573): Lose by 8 points
25 (+2)	Green Bay PackersGB	1456 (+12)	2-2	vs CHI (1556): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1440): W 17-14: 1444+12→1456
next: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1556): Slight underdog
26 (-4)	Washington CommandersWAS	1435 (-30)	1-3	vs NYG (1465): Slight fav
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1497): L 13-30: 1465-30→1435
next: vs New York GiantsNYG (1465): Slight favorite
27 (+1)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1428 (-12)	0-4	at DAL (1500): Lose by 6
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1444): L 14-17: 1440-12→1428
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1500): Lose by 6 points
28 (-4)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1414 (-41)	1-3	vs MIN (1549): Lose by 5
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1468): L 24-45: 1455-41→1414
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1549): Lose by 5 points
29	Arizona CardinalsARI	1403 (-16)	1-3	vs DET (1518): Lose by 3
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1449): L 24-36: 1419-16→1403
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1518): Lose by 3 points
30	New York JetsNYJ	1398	1-3	vs CLE (1466): Slight 'dog
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1556): L 12-23: 1398+0→1398
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1466): Slight underdog
31	Miami DolphinsMIA	1394 (+15)	0-4	vs CIN (1503): Slight 'dog
prev: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1564): L 10-15: 1379+15→1394
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1503): Slight underdog
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1368 (+11)	0-4	vs HOU (1496): Slight 'dog
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1529): L 18-24: 1357+11→1368
next: vs Houston TexansHOU (1496): Slight underdog
Favorites:
ATL, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU,
JAX, LAR, MIN, NE, PIT, SEA, WAS

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 3, 2026 Season

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Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1658 (-35)	2-1	vs LAC (1450): Win by 15
prev: at Washington CommandersWAS (1429): L 31-33: 1693-35→1658
next: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1450): Win by 15 points
2	Buffalo BillsBUF	1606 (-10)	3-0	vs NE (1553): Win by 4
prev: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1440): W 24-16: 1616-10→1606
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1553): Win by 4 points
3 (+5)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1602 (+51)	2-1	at CIN (1509): Slight fav
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1604): W 35-6: 1551+51→1602
next: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1509): Slight favorite
4	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1588 (-11)	1-2	at PHI (1500): Slight fav
prev: at Denver BroncosDEN (1555): L 26-30: 1599-11→1588
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1500): Slight favorite
5	San Francisco 49ersSF	1569 (-6)	3-0	vs DEN (1566): Slight fav
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1413): W 36-30: 1575-6→1569
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1566): Slight favorite
6	Denver BroncosDEN	1566 (+11)	2-1	at SF (1569): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1599): W 30-26: 1555+11→1566
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1569): Slight underdog
7	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1564 (+10)	3-0	vs MIA (1379): Win by 13
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1449): W 23-16: 1554+10→1564
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1379): Win by 13 points
8 (+6)	Chicago BearsCHI	1556 (+36)	2-1	vs NYJ (1398): Win by 11
prev: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1535): W 27-7: 1520+36→1556
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1398): Win by 11 points
9 (-6)	New England PatriotsNE	1553 (-51)	1-2	at BUF (1606): Lose by 4
prev: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1551): L 6-35: 1604-51→1553
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1606): Lose by 4 points
10 (+1)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1550 (+18)	3-0	at LV (1468): Slight fav
prev: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1397): W 24-10: 1532+18→1550
next: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1468): Slight favorite
11 (-2)	Detroit LionsDET	1533 (-9)	2-1	at CAR (1491): Tossup
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1388): W 31-24: 1542-9→1533
next: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1491): Tossup
12	Baltimore RavensBAL	1529 (+3)	2-1	vs TEN (1357): Win by 12
prev: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1481): W 34-31: 1526+3→1529
next: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1357): Win by 12 points
13	Houston TexansHOU	1517 (-4)	0-3	vs DAL (1478): Win by 4
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1493): L 17-19: 1521-4→1517
next: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1478): Win by 4 points
14 (+1)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1509 (-8)	2-1	vs JAX (1602): Slight 'dog
prev: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1475): L 27-30: 1517-8→1509
next: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1602): Slight underdog
15 (-5)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1500 (-35)	2-1	vs LAR (1588): Slight 'dog
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1520): L 7-27: 1535-35→1500
next: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1588): Slight underdog
16 (+2)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1497 (+4)	1-2	at WAS (1465): Slight fav
prev: vs Houston TexansHOU (1521): W 19-17: 1493+4→1497
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1465): Slight favorite
17	Carolina PanthersCAR	1491 (-10)	1-2	vs DET (1533): Tossup
prev: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1451): L 18-21: 1501-10→1491
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1533): Tossup
18 (+3)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1483 (+8)	2-1	at CLE (1461): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1517): W 30-27: 1475+8→1483
next: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1461): Slight underdog
19 (+1)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1478 (-3)	1-2	at HOU (1517): Lose by 4
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1526): L 31-34: 1481-3→1478
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1517): Lose by 4 points
20 (+6)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1468 (+33)	3-0	vs KC (1550): Slight 'dog
prev: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1488): W 35-27: 1435+33→1468
next: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1550): Slight underdog
21 (+8)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1468 (+60)	1-2	at NO (1455): Slight 'dog
prev: at Green Bay PackersGB (1503): W 35-14: 1408+60→1468
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1455): Slight underdog
22 (+5)	Washington CommandersWAS	1465 (+36)	1-2	at IND (1497): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1693): W 33-31: 1429+36→1465
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1497): Slight underdog
23	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1461 (+10)	2-1	vs PIT (1483): Slight fav
prev: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1501): W 21-18: 1451+10→1461
next: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1483): Slight favorite
24 (-5)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1455 (-33)	1-2	vs ATL (1468): Slight fav
prev: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1435): L 27-35: 1488-33→1455
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1468): Slight favorite
25	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1450 (+10)	0-3	at SEA (1658): Lose by 15
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1616): L 16-24: 1440+10→1450
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1658): Lose by 15 points
26 (-4)	New York GiantsNYG	1449 (-5)	2-1	vs ARI (1419): Win by 3
prev: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1352): W 12-7: 1454-5→1449
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1419): Win by 3 points
27 (-11)	Green Bay PackersGB	1444 (-59)	1-2	at TB (1440): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1408): L 14-35: 1503-59→1444
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1440): Slight underdog
28 (-4)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1440 (-9)	0-3	vs GB (1444): Slight fav
prev: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1554): L 16-23: 1449-9→1440
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1444): Slight favorite
29 (-1)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1419 (+6)	1-2	at NYG (1449): Lose by 3
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1575): L 30-36: 1413+6→1419
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1449): Lose by 3 points
30 (+1)	New York JetsNYJ	1398 (+10)	1-2	at CHI (1556): Lose by 11
prev: at Detroit LionsDET (1542): L 24-31: 1388+10→1398
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1556): Lose by 11 points
31 (-1)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1379 (-18)	0-3	at MIN (1564): Lose by 13
prev: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1532): L 10-24: 1397-18→1379
next: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1564): Lose by 13 points
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1357 (+5)	0-3	at BAL (1529): Lose by 12
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1454): L 7-12: 1352+5→1357
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1529): Lose by 12 points
Favorites:
BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CLE, HOU, IND, JAX,
KC, LAR, MIN, NO, NYG, SEA, SF, TB

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 2, 2026 Season

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Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1693 (+25)	2-0	at WAS (1429): Win by 13
prev: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1438): W 31-7: 1668+25→1693
next: at Washington CommandersWAS (1429): Win by 13 points
2	Buffalo BillsBUF	1616 (+12)	2-0	vs LAC (1440): Win by 13
prev: vs Detroit LionsDET (1554): W 41-31: 1604+12→1616
next: vs Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1440): Win by 13 points
3	New England PatriotsNE	1604 (+15)	1-1	at JAX (1551): Slight fav
prev: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1490): W 20-3: 1589+15→1604
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1551): Slight favorite
4	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1599 (+22)	1-1	at DEN (1555): Tossup
prev: vs New York GiantsNYG (1476): W 28-6: 1577+22→1599
next: at Denver BroncosDEN (1555): Tossup
5 (+3)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1575 (+17)	2-0	vs ARI (1413): Win by 9
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1414): W 35-13: 1558+17→1575
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1413): Win by 9 points
6 (+7)	Denver BroncosDEN	1555 (+18)	1-1	vs LAR (1599): Tossup
prev: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1569): W 20-13: 1537+18→1555
next: vs Los Angeles RamsLAR (1599): Tossup
7 (+7)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1554 (+24)	2-0	at TB (1449): Slight fav
prev: at Chicago BearsCHI (1545): W 9-3: 1530+24→1554
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1449): Slight favorite
8 (-2)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1551 (-18)	1-1	vs NE (1604): Slight 'dog
prev: at Denver BroncosDEN (1537): L 13-20: 1569-18→1551
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1604): Slight underdog
9	Detroit LionsDET	1542 (-12)	1-1	vs NYJ (1388): Win by 12
prev: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1604): L 31-41: 1554-12→1542
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1388): Win by 12 points
10	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1535 (-11)	2-0	at CHI (1520): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1341): W 24-20: 1546-11→1535
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1520): Slight underdog
11 (+1)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1532 (-6)	2-0	at MIA (1397): Win by 5
prev: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1487): W 33-30(OT): 1538-6→1532
next: at Miami DolphinsMIA (1397): Win by 5 points
12 (-5)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1526 (-42)	1-1	at DAL (1481): Slight fav
prev: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1446): L 17-24: 1568-42→1526
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1481): Slight favorite
13 (-8)	Houston TexansHOU	1521 (-54)	0-2	at IND (1493): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1463): L 6-20: 1575-54→1521
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1493): Slight underdog
14 (-3)	Chicago BearsCHI	1520 (-25)	1-1	vs PHI (1535): Slight fav
prev: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1530): L 3-9: 1545-25→1520
next: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1535): Slight favorite
15 (+7)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1517 (+54)	2-0	at PIT (1475): Slight 'dog
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1575): W 20-6: 1463+54→1517
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1475): Slight underdog
16 (-1)	Green Bay PackersGB	1503 (-5)	1-1	vs ATL (1408): Win by 7
prev: at New York JetsNYJ (1383): W 20-17(OT): 1508-5→1503
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1408): Win by 7 points
17 (+10)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1501 (+63)	1-1	at CLE (1451): Slight fav
prev: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1472): W 34-3: 1438+63→1501
next: at Cleveland BrownsCLE (1451): Slight favorite
18 (-1)	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1493 (+6)	0-2	vs HOU (1521): Slight fav
prev: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1538): L 30-33(OT): 1487+6→1493
next: vs Houston TexansHOU (1521): Slight favorite
19 (+6)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1488 (+42)	1-1	vs LV (1435): Win by 5
prev: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1568): W 24-17: 1446+42→1488
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1435): Win by 5 points
20 (+4)	Dallas CowboysDAL	1481 (+32)	1-1	at BAL (1526): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1462): W 37-20: 1449+32→1481
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1526): Slight underdog
21 (-5)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1475 (-15)	1-1	vs CIN (1517): Slight fav
prev: at New England PatriotsNE (1589): L 3-20: 1490-15→1475
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1517): Slight favorite
22 (-3)	New York GiantsNYG	1454 (-22)	1-1	vs TEN (1352): Win by 7
prev: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1577): L 6-28: 1476-22→1454
next: vs Tennessee TitansTEN (1352): Win by 7 points
23 (+5)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1451 (+25)	1-1	vs CAR (1501): Slight 'dog
prev: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1474): W 23-19: 1426+25→1451
next: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1501): Slight underdog
24 (-4)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1449 (-25)	0-2	vs MIN (1554): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1426): L 19-23: 1474-25→1449
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1554): Slight underdog
25 (-7)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1440 (-46)	0-2	at BUF (1616): Lose by 13
prev: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1389): L 14-26: 1486-46→1440
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1616): Lose by 13 points
26 (+4)	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1435 (+46)	2-0	at NO (1488): Lose by 5
prev: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1486): W 26-14: 1389+46→1435
next: at New Orleans SaintsNO (1488): Lose by 5 points
27 (-4)	Washington CommandersWAS	1429 (-33)	0-2	vs SEA (1693): Lose by 13
prev: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1449): L 20-37: 1462-33→1429
next: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1693): Lose by 13 points
28 (-2)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1413 (-25)	1-1	at SF (1575): Lose by 9
prev: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1668): L 7-31: 1438-25→1413
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1575): Lose by 9 points
29 (-8)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1408 (-64)	0-2	at GB (1503): Lose by 7
prev: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1438): L 3-34: 1472-64→1408
next: at Green Bay PackersGB (1503): Lose by 7 points
30 (-1)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1397 (-17)	0-2	vs KC (1532): Lose by 5
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1558): L 13-35: 1414-17→1397
next: vs Kansas City ChiefsKC (1532): Lose by 5 points
31	New York JetsNYJ	1388 (+5)	1-1	at DET (1542): Lose by 12
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1508): L 17-20(OT): 1383+5→1388
next: at Detroit LionsDET (1542): Lose by 12 points
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1352 (+11)	0-2	at NYG (1454): Lose by 7
prev: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1546): L 20-24: 1341+11→1352
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1454): Lose by 7 points
Favorites:
BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, DEN, DET, GB, IND,
KC, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, PIT, SEA, SF

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 1, 2026 Season

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Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1668 (-4)	1-0	at ARI (1438): Win by 8
prev: vs New England PatriotsNE (1585): W 13-10: 1672-4→1668
next: at Arizona CardinalsARI (1438): Win by 8 points
2 (+1)	Buffalo BillsBUF	1604 (+10)	1-0	vs DET (1554): Win by 4
prev: at Houston TexansHOU (1585): W 36-31: 1594+10→1604
next: vs Detroit LionsDET (1554): Win by 4 points
3 (+2)	New England PatriotsNE	1589 (+4)	0-1	vs PIT (1490): Win by 9
prev: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1672): L 10-13: 1585+4→1589
next: vs Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1490): Win by 9 points
4 (-2)	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1577 (-25)	0-1	vs NYG (1476): Win by 9
prev: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1533): L 7-27: 1602-25→1577
next: vs New York GiantsNYG (1476): Win by 9 points
5 (-1)	Houston TexansHOU	1575 (-10)	0-1	vs CIN (1463): Win by 8
prev: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1594): L 31-36: 1585-10→1575
next: vs Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1463): Win by 8 points
6 (+2)	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1569 (+12)	1-0	at DEN (1537): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1438): W 34-10: 1557+12→1569
next: at Denver BroncosDEN (1537): Slight underdog
7 (+3)	Baltimore RavensBAL	1568 (+21)	1-0	vs NO (1446): Win by 9
prev: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1507): W 41-23: 1547+21→1568
next: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1446): Win by 9 points
8 (+3)	San Francisco 49ersSF	1558 (+25)	1-0	vs MIA (1414): Win by 11
prev: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1602): W 27-7: 1533+25→1558
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1414): Win by 11 points
9 (-3)	Detroit LionsDET	1554 (-8)	1-0	at BUF (1604): Lose by 4
prev: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1438): W 31-30(OT): 1562-8→1554
next: at Buffalo BillsBUF (1604): Lose by 4 points
10 (-1)	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1546 (-5)	1-0	at TEN (1341): Win by 9
prev: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1457): W 24-22: 1551-5→1546
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1341): Win by 9 points
11 (+2)	Chicago BearsCHI	1545 (+21)	1-0	vs MIN (1530): Slight fav
prev: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1458): W 59-37: 1524+21→1545
next: vs Minnesota VikingsMIN (1530): Slight favorite
12 (+2)	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1538 (+21)	1-0	vs IND (1487): Win by 4
prev: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1558): W 31-10: 1517+21→1538
next: vs Indianapolis ColtsIND (1487): Win by 4 points
13 (-6)	Denver BroncosDEN	1537 (-21)	0-1	vs JAX (1569): Slight fav
prev: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1517): L 10-31: 1558-21→1537
next: vs Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1569): Slight favorite
14 (+1)	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1530 (+17)	1-0	at CHI (1545): Slight 'dog
prev: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1525): W 39-22: 1513+17→1530
next: at Chicago BearsCHI (1545): Slight underdog
15 (-3)	Green Bay PackersGB	1508 (-17)	0-1	at NYJ (1383): Win by 4
prev: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1513): L 22-39: 1525-17→1508
next: at New York JetsNYJ (1383): Win by 4 points
16 (+2)	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1490 (+6)	1-0	at NE (1589): Lose by 9
prev: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1478): W 20-13: 1484+6→1490
next: at New England PatriotsNE (1589): Lose by 9 points
17	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1487 (-20)	0-1	at KC (1538): Lose by 4
prev: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1547): L 23-41: 1507-20→1487
next: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1538): Lose by 4 points
18 (-2)	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1486 (-25)	0-1	vs LV (1389): Win by 6
prev: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1413): L 14-26: 1511-25→1486
next: vs Las Vegas RaidersLV (1389): Win by 6 points
19 (+2)	New York GiantsNYG	1476 (+7)	1-0	at LAR (1577): Lose by 9
prev: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1456): W 28-20: 1469+7→1476
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1577): Lose by 9 points
20 (-1)	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1474 (-8)	0-1	vs CLE (1426): Win by 4
prev: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1455): L 27-33: 1482-8→1474
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1426): Win by 4 points
21 (-1)	Atlanta FalconsATL	1472 (-6)	0-1	vs CAR (1438): Win by 3
prev: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1484): L 13-20: 1478-6→1472
next: vs Carolina PanthersCAR (1438): Win by 3 points
22 (+3)	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1463 (+8)	1-0	at HOU (1575): Lose by 8
prev: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1482): W 33-27: 1455+8→1463
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1575): Lose by 8 points
23	Washington CommandersWAS	1462 (+5)	0-1	at DAL (1449): Slight 'dog
prev: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1551): L 22-24: 1457+5→1462
next: at Dallas CowboysDAL (1449): Slight underdog
24	Dallas CowboysDAL	1449 (-7)	0-1	vs WAS (1462): Slight fav
prev: at New York GiantsNYG (1469): L 20-28: 1456-7→1449
next: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1462): Slight favorite
25 (+2)	New Orleans SaintsNO	1446 (+8)	0-1	at BAL (1568): Lose by 9
prev: at Detroit LionsDET (1562): L 30-31(OT): 1438+8→1446
next: at Baltimore RavensBAL (1568): Lose by 9 points
26 (+3)	Arizona CardinalsARI	1438 (+25)	1-0	vs SEA (1668): Lose by 8
prev: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1511): W 26-14: 1413+25→1438
next: vs Seattle SeahawksSEA (1668): Lose by 8 points
27 (-5)	Carolina PanthersCAR	1438 (-20)	0-1	at ATL (1472): Lose by 3
prev: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1524): L 37-59: 1458-20→1438
next: at Atlanta FalconsATL (1472): Lose by 3 points
28 (-2)	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1426 (-12)	0-1	at TB (1474): Lose by 4
prev: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1557): L 10-34: 1438-12→1426
next: at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1474): Lose by 4 points
29 (-1)	Miami DolphinsMIA	1414 (-18)	0-1	at SF (1558): Lose by 11
prev: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1371): L 13-27: 1432-18→1414
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1558): Lose by 11 points
30	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1389 (+18)	1-0	at LAC (1486): Lose by 6
prev: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1432): W 27-13: 1371+18→1389
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1486): Lose by 6 points
31	New York JetsNYJ	1383 (+19)	1-0	vs GB (1508): Lose by 4
prev: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1360): W 23-10: 1364+19→1383
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1508): Lose by 4 points
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1341 (-19)	0-1	vs PHI (1546): Lose by 9
prev: vs New York JetsNYJ (1364): L 10-23: 1360-19→1341
next: vs Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1546): Lose by 9 points
Favorites:
ATL, BAL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DEN, GB, HOU,
KC, LAC, LAR, NE, PHI, SEA, SF, TB

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Preseason Power Rankings, 2026 season:

show prev/next hide prev/next

Rank	Team	Elo Rating	Record	Next
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1672	0-0	vs NE (1585): Win by 7
prev: offseason parity reset: 1689-17→1672
next: vs New England PatriotsNE (1585): Win by 7 points
2	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1602	0-0	at SF (1533): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1612-10→1602
next: at San Francisco 49ersSF (1533): Slight favorite
3	Buffalo BillsBUF	1594	0-0	at HOU (1585): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1603-9→1594
next: at Houston TexansHOU (1585): Slight underdog
4	Houston TexansHOU	1585	0-0	vs BUF (1594): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1593-8→1585
next: vs Buffalo BillsBUF (1594): Slight favorite
5	New England PatriotsNE	1585	0-0	at SEA (1672): Lose by 7
prev: offseason parity reset: 1593-8→1585
next: at Seattle SeahawksSEA (1672): Lose by 7 points
6	Detroit LionsDET	1562	0-0	vs NO (1438): Win by 9
prev: offseason parity reset: 1568-6→1562
next: vs New Orleans SaintsNO (1438): Win by 9 points
7	Denver BroncosDEN	1558	0-0	at KC (1517): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1564-6→1558
next: at Kansas City ChiefsKC (1517): Slight underdog
8	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1557	0-0	vs CLE (1438): Win by 9
prev: offseason parity reset: 1562-5→1557
next: vs Cleveland BrownsCLE (1438): Win by 9 points
9	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1551	0-0	vs WAS (1457): Win by 6
prev: offseason parity reset: 1556-5→1551
next: vs Washington CommandersWAS (1457): Win by 6 points
10	Baltimore RavensBAL	1547	0-0	at IND (1507): Tossup
prev: offseason parity reset: 1552-5→1547
next: at Indianapolis ColtsIND (1507): Tossup
11	San Francisco 49ersSF	1533	0-0	at LAR (1602): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1536-3→1533
next: at Los Angeles RamsLAR (1602): Slight underdog
12	Green Bay PackersGB	1525	0-0	at MIN (1513): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1528-3→1525
next: at Minnesota VikingsMIN (1513): Slight underdog
13	Chicago BearsCHI	1524	0-0	at CAR (1458): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1526-2→1524
next: at Carolina PanthersCAR (1458): Slight favorite
14	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1517	0-0	vs DEN (1558): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1519-2→1517
next: vs Denver BroncosDEN (1558): Slight favorite
15	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1513	0-0	vs GB (1525): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1514-1→1513
next: vs Green Bay PackersGB (1525): Slight favorite
16	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1511	0-0	vs ARI (1413): Win by 7
prev: offseason parity reset: 1512-1→1511
next: vs Arizona CardinalsARI (1413): Win by 7 points
17	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1507	0-0	vs BAL (1547): Tossup
prev: offseason parity reset: 1508-1→1507
next: vs Baltimore RavensBAL (1547): Tossup
18	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1484	0-0	vs ATL (1478): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1482+2→1484
next: vs Atlanta FalconsATL (1478): Slight favorite
19	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1482	0-0	at CIN (1455): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1480+2→1482
next: at Cincinnati BengalsCIN (1455): Slight underdog
20	Atlanta FalconsATL	1478	0-0	at PIT (1484): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1476+2→1478
next: at Pittsburgh SteelersPIT (1484): Slight underdog
21	New York GiantsNYG	1469	0-0	vs DAL (1456): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1466+3→1469
next: vs Dallas CowboysDAL (1456): Slight favorite
22	Carolina PanthersCAR	1458	0-0	vs CHI (1524): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1454+4→1458
next: vs Chicago BearsCHI (1524): Slight underdog
23	Washington CommandersWAS	1457	0-0	at PHI (1551): Lose by 6
prev: offseason parity reset: 1453+4→1457
next: at Philadelphia EaglesPHI (1551): Lose by 6 points
24	Dallas CowboysDAL	1456	0-0	at NYG (1469): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1451+5→1456
next: at New York GiantsNYG (1469): Slight underdog
25	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1455	0-0	vs TB (1482): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1451+4→1455
next: vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB (1482): Slight favorite
26	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1438	0-0	at JAX (1557): Lose by 9
prev: offseason parity reset: 1433+5→1438
next: at Jacksonville JaguarsJAX (1557): Lose by 9 points
27	New Orleans SaintsNO	1438	0-0	at DET (1562): Lose by 9
prev: offseason parity reset: 1432+6→1438
next: at Detroit LionsDET (1562): Lose by 9 points
28	Miami DolphinsMIA	1432	0-0	at LV (1371): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1425+7→1432
next: at Las Vegas RaidersLV (1371): Slight favorite
29	Arizona CardinalsARI	1413	0-0	at LAC (1511): Lose by 7
prev: offseason parity reset: 1405+8→1413
next: at Los Angeles ChargersLAC (1511): Lose by 7 points
30	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1371	0-0	vs MIA (1432): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1359+12→1371
next: vs Miami DolphinsMIA (1432): Slight underdog
31	New York JetsNYJ	1364	0-0	at TEN (1360): Slight 'dog
prev: offseason parity reset: 1351+13→1364
next: at Tennessee TitansTEN (1360): Slight underdog
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1360	0-0	vs NYJ (1364): Slight fav
prev: offseason parity reset: 1346+14→1360
next: vs New York JetsNYJ (1364): Slight favorite
Favorites:
CHI, CIN, DET, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC,
LAR, MIA, MIN, NYG, PHI, PIT, SEA, TEN

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Team Summaries for 2026 Season

↑ Arizona Cardinals

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1551 (+130 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1511 \| avg. lost to rating: 1564 \| avg. remaining rating: 1519
1	26	at LAC(1511) W 26-14: +25→1438	9	at SEA	17	vs LV
2	28	vs SEA(1668) L 7-31: -25→1413	10	vs LAR	18	vs SF
3	29	at SF(1575) L 30-36: +6→1419	11	at KC	W
4	29	at NYG(1449) L 24-36: -16→1403	12	vs WAS	D
5		vs DET	13	vs PHI	C
6		at LAR	14	(bye)	S
7		vs DEN	15	vs NYJ
8		at DAL	16	at NO

↑ Atlanta Falcons

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1470 (+13 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1479 \| avg. lost to rating: 1461 \| avg. remaining rating: 1497
1	21	at PIT(1484) L 13-20: -6→1472	9	at CIN	17	vs NO
2	29	vs CAR(1438) L 3-34: -64→1408	10	vs KC	18	at CAR
3	21	at GB(1503) W 35-14: +60→1468	11	(bye)	W
4	14	at NO(1455) W 45-24: +40→1508	12	at MIN	D
5		vs BAL	13	vs DET	C
6		vs CHI	14	at CLE	S
7		vs SF	15	at WAS
8		at TB	16	vs TB

↑ Baltimore Ravens

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1448 (-94 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1448 \| avg. lost to rating: 1446 \| avg. remaining rating: 1499
1	7	at IND(1507) W 41-23: +21→1568	9	vs JAX	17	at CIN
2	12	vs NO(1446) L 17-24: -42→1526	10	vs LAC	18	vs PIT
3	12	at DAL(1481) W 34-31: +3→1529	11	at CAR	W
4	13	vs TEN(1357) W 24-18: -12→1517	12	at HOU	D
5		at ATL	13	(bye)	C
6		at CLE	14	vs TB	S
7		vs CIN	15	at PIT
8		at BUF	16	vs CLE

↑ Buffalo Bills

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1533 (-72 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1526 \| avg. lost to rating: 1553 \| avg. remaining rating: 1492
1	2	at HOU(1585) W 36-31: +10→1604	9	at MIN	17	at MIA
2	2	vs DET(1554) W 41-31: +12→1616	10	at NYJ	18	vs NYJ
3	2	vs LAC(1440) W 24-16: -10→1606	11	vs MIA	W
4	4	vs NE(1553) L 26-29: -20→1586	12	vs KC	D
5		at LAR	13	at NE	C
6		at LV	14	at GB	S
7		(bye)	15	vs CHI
8		vs BAL	16	at DEN

↑ Carolina Panthers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1495 (+23 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1502 \| avg. lost to rating: 1488 \| avg. remaining rating: 1491
1	27	vs CHI(1524) L 37-59: -20→1438	9	vs DEN	17	vs SEA
2	17	at ATL(1472) W 34-3: +63→1501	10	at NO	18	vs ATL
3	17	at CLE(1451) L 18-21: -10→1491	11	vs BAL	W
4	15	vs DET(1533) W 32-26: +15→1506	12	at TB	D
5		(bye)	13	at MIN	C
6		at PHI	14	vs NO	S
7		vs TB	15	vs CIN
8		at GB	16	at PIT

↑ Chicago Bears

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1480 (-56 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1464 \| avg. lost to rating: 1530 \| avg. remaining rating: 1512
1	11	at CAR(1458) W 59-37: +21→1545	9	vs TB	17	vs DET
2	14	vs MIN(1530) L 3-9: -25→1520	10	(bye)	18	at MIN
3	8	vs PHI(1535) W 27-7: +36→1556	11	vs NO	W
4	8	vs NYJ(1398) W 23-12: -0→1556	12	at DET	D
5		at GB	13	vs JAX	C
6		at ATL	14	at MIA	S
7		vs NE	15	at BUF
8		at SEA	16	vs GB

↑ Cincinnati Bengals

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1533 (+47 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1528 \| avg. lost to rating: 1538 \| avg. remaining rating: 1473
1	22	vs TB(1482) W 33-27: +8→1463	9	at ATL	17	vs BAL
2	15	at HOU(1575) W 20-6: +54→1517	10	vs PIT	18	vs CLE
3	14	at PIT(1475) L 27-30: -8→1509	11	at WAS	W
4	16	vs JAX(1602) L 17-22: -6→1503	12	vs NO	D
5		at MIA	13	at CLE	C
6		(bye)	14	vs KC	S
7		at BAL	15	at CAR
8		vs TEN	16	at IND

↑ Cleveland Browns

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (+60 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1486 \| avg. lost to rating: 1557 \| avg. remaining rating: 1473
1	28	at JAX(1557) L 10-34: -12→1426	9	at NO	17	vs IND
2	23	at TB(1474) W 23-19: +25→1451	10	vs HOU	18	at CIN
3	23	vs CAR(1501) W 21-18: +10→1461	11	(bye)	W
4	21	vs PIT(1483) W 27-24: +5→1466	12	vs LV	D
5		at NYJ	13	vs CIN	C
6		vs BAL	14	vs ATL	S
7		at TEN	15	at NYG
8		at PIT	16	at BAL

↑ Dallas Cowboys

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1493 (+27 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1490 \| avg. lost to rating: 1497 \| avg. remaining rating: 1500
1	24	at NYG(1469) L 20-28: -7→1449	9	at IND	17	vs NYG
2	20	vs WAS(1462) W 37-20: +32→1481	10	vs SF	18	at WAS
3	19	at BAL(1526) L 31-34: -3→1478	11	vs TEN	W
4	17	at HOU(1517) W 34-30: +22→1500	12	vs PHI	D
5		vs TB	13	at SEA	C
6		at GB	14	(bye)	S
7		at PHI	15	at LAR
8		vs ARI	16	vs JAX

↑ Denver Broncos

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1563 (+9 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1584 \| avg. lost to rating: 1543 \| avg. remaining rating: 1491
1	13	at KC(1517) L 10-31: -21→1537	9	at CAR	17	at NE
2	6	vs JAX(1569) W 20-13: +18→1555	10	(bye)	18	vs LAC
3	6	vs LAR(1599) W 30-26: +11→1566	11	vs LV	W
4	9	at SF(1569) L 14-24: -16→1550	12	at PIT	D
5		at LAC	13	vs MIA	C
6		vs SEA	14	at NYJ	S
7		at ARI	15	at LV
8		vs KC	16	vs BUF

↑ Detroit Lions

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1480 (-68 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1413 \| avg. lost to rating: 1547 \| avg. remaining rating: 1482
1	9	vs NO(1438) W 31-30: -8→1554	9	at MIA	17	at CHI
2	9	at BUF(1604) L 31-41: -12→1542	10	at NE	18	at GB
3	11	vs NYJ(1388) W 31-24: -9→1533	11	vs TB	W
4	12	at CAR(1491) L 26-32: -15→1518	12	vs CHI	D
5		at ARI	13	at ATL	C
6		(bye)	14	vs TEN	S
7		vs GB	15	at MIN
8		vs MIN	16	vs NYG

↑ Green Bay Packers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1436 (-59 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1411 \| avg. lost to rating: 1461 \| avg. remaining rating: 1520
1	15	at MIN(1513) L 22-39: -17→1508	9	at NE	17	vs HOU
2	16	at NYJ(1383) W 20-17: -5→1503	10	vs MIN	18	vs DET
3	27	vs ATL(1408) L 14-35: -59→1444	11	(bye)	W
4	25	at TB(1440) W 17-14: +12→1456	12	at LAR	D
5		vs CHI	13	at NO	C
6		vs DAL	14	vs BUF	S
7		at DET	15	vs MIA
8		vs CAR	16	at CHI

↑ Houston Texans

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1507 (-42 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1507 \| avg. remaining rating: 1481
1	5	vs BUF(1594) L 31-36: -10→1575	9	at LAC	17	at GB
2	13	vs CIN(1463) L 6-20: -54→1521	10	at CLE	18	vs TEN
3	13	at IND(1493) L 17-19: -4→1517	11	vs IND	W
4	19	vs DAL(1478) L 30-34: -21→1496	12	vs BAL	D
5		at TEN	13	at PIT	C
6		at JAX	14	at WAS	S
7		vs NYG	15	vs JAX
8		(bye)	16	at PHI

↑ Indianapolis Colts

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1518 (+22 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1493 \| avg. lost to rating: 1543 \| avg. remaining rating: 1485
1	17	vs BAL(1547) L 23-41: -20→1487	9	vs DAL	17	at CLE
2	18	at KC(1538) L 30-33: +6→1493	10	vs MIA	18	vs JAX
3	16	vs HOU(1521) W 19-17: +4→1497	11	at HOU	W
4	11	at WAS(1465) W 30-13: +29→1526	12	vs NYG	D
5		at PIT	13	(bye)	C
6		vs TEN	14	at PHI	S
7		at MIN	15	at TEN
8		at JAX	16	vs CIN

↑ Jacksonville Jaguars

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1522 (-47 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1517 \| avg. lost to rating: 1537 \| avg. remaining rating: 1479
1	6	vs CLE(1438) W 34-10: +12→1569	9	at BAL	17	vs WAS
2	8	at DEN(1537) L 13-20: -18→1551	10	at TEN	18	at IND
3	3	vs NE(1604) W 35-6: +51→1602	11	at NYG	W
4	2	at CIN(1509) W 22-17: +6→1608	12	vs TEN	D
5		at PHI	13	at CHI	C
6		at HOU	14	vs PIT	S
7		(bye)	15	at HOU
8		vs IND	16	at DAL

↑ Kansas City Chiefs

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1478 (-57 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1478 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1518
1	12	vs DEN(1558) W 31-10: +21→1538	9	vs NYJ	17	at LAC
2	11	vs IND(1487) W 33-30: -6→1532	10	at ATL	18	vs LV
3	10	at MIA(1397) W 24-10: +18→1550	11	vs ARI	W
4	7	at LV(1468) W 30-27: +6→1556	12	at BUF	D
5		(bye)	13	at LAR	C
6		vs LAC	14	at CIN	S
7		at SEA	15	vs NE
8		at DEN	16	vs SF

↑ Las Vegas Raiders

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1489 (+73 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1469 \| avg. lost to rating: 1550 \| avg. remaining rating: 1518
1	30	vs MIA(1432) W 27-13: +18→1389	9	at SF	17	at ARI
2	26	at LAC(1486) W 26-14: +46→1435	10	vs SEA	18	at KC
3	20	at NO(1488) W 35-27: +33→1468	11	at DEN	W
4	24	vs KC(1550) L 27-30: -6→1462	12	at CLE	D
5		at NE	13	(bye)	C
6		vs BUF	14	vs LAC	S
7		vs LAR	15	vs DEN
8		at NYJ	16	vs TEN

↑ Los Angeles Chargers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1519 (+47 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1519 \| avg. remaining rating: 1512
1	18	vs ARI(1413) L 14-26: -25→1486	9	vs HOU	17	vs KC
2	25	vs LV(1389) L 14-26: -46→1440	10	at BAL	18	at DEN
3	25	at BUF(1616) L 16-24: +10→1450	11	vs NYJ	W
4	23	at SEA(1658) L 23-30: +13→1463	12	vs NE	D
5		vs DEN	13	at TB	C
6		at KC	14	at LV	S
7		(bye)	15	vs SF
8		vs LAR	16	at MIA

↑ Los Angeles Rams

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1516 (-76 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1488 \| avg. lost to rating: 1544 \| avg. remaining rating: 1505
1	4	at SF(1533) L 7-27: -25→1577	9	at WAS	17	at TB
2	4	vs NYG(1476) W 28-6: +22→1599	10	at ARI	18	vs SEA
3	4	at DEN(1555) L 26-30: -11→1588	11	(bye)	W
4	3	at PHI(1500) W 24-20: +4→1592	12	vs GB	D
5		vs BUF	13	vs KC	C
6		vs ARI	14	at SF	S
7		at LV	15	vs DAL
8		vs LAC	16	at SEA

↑ Miami Dolphins

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1506 (+101 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1506 \| avg. remaining rating: 1514
1	29	at LV(1371) L 13-27: -18→1414	9	vs DET	17	vs BUF
2	30	at SF(1558) L 13-35: -17→1397	10	at IND	18	at NE
3	31	vs KC(1532) L 10-24: -18→1379	11	at BUF	W
4	31	at MIN(1564) L 10-15: +15→1394	12	vs NYJ	D
5		vs CIN	13	at DEN	C
6		(bye)	14	vs CHI	S
7		at NYJ	15	at GB
8		vs NE	16	vs LAC

↑ Minnesota Vikings

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1475 (-65 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1475 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1506
1	14	vs GB(1525) W 39-22: +17→1530	9	vs BUF	17	at NYJ
2	7	at CHI(1545) W 9-3: +24→1554	10	at GB	18	vs CHI
3	7	at TB(1449) W 23-16: +10→1564	11	at SF	W
4	10	vs MIA(1379) W 15-10: -15→1549	12	vs ATL	D
5		at NO	13	vs CAR	C
6		(bye)	14	at NE	S
7		vs IND	15	vs DET
8		at DET	16	vs WAS

↑ New England Patriots

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1580 (-3 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1548 \| avg. lost to rating: 1612 \| avg. remaining rating: 1483
1	3	at SEA(1672) L 10-13: +4→1589	9	vs GB	17	vs DEN
2	3	vs PIT(1490) W 20-3: +15→1604	10	at DET	18	vs MIA
3	9	at JAX(1551) L 6-35: -51→1553	11	(bye)	W
4	6	at BUF(1606) W 29-26: +20→1573	12	at LAC	D
5		vs LV	13	vs BUF	C
6		vs NYJ	14	vs MIN	S
7		at CHI	15	at KC
8		at MIA	16	at NYJ

↑ New Orleans Saints

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1508 (+51 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1568 \| avg. lost to rating: 1488 \| avg. remaining rating: 1481
1	25	at DET(1562) L 30-31: +8→1446	9	vs CLE	17	at ATL
2	19	at BAL(1568) W 24-17: +42→1488	10	vs CAR	18	vs TB
3	24	vs LV(1435) L 27-35: -33→1455	11	at CHI	W
4	28	vs ATL(1468) L 24-45: -41→1414	12	at CIN	D
5		vs MIN	13	vs GB	C
6		at NYG	14	at CAR	S
7		at PIT	15	at TB
8		(bye)	16	vs ARI

↑ New York Giants

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1451 (-11 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1409 \| avg. lost to rating: 1577 \| avg. remaining rating: 1509
1	19	vs DAL(1456) W 28-20: +7→1476	9	at PHI	17	at DAL
2	22	at LAR(1577) L 6-28: -22→1454	10	vs WAS	18	vs PHI
3	26	vs TEN(1352) W 12-7: -5→1449	11	vs JAX	W
4	22	vs ARI(1419) W 36-24: +16→1465	12	at IND	D
5		at WAS	13	vs SF	C
6		vs NO	14	at SEA	S
7		at HOU	15	vs CLE
8		(bye)	16	at DET

↑ New York Jets

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1492 (+108 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1360 \| avg. lost to rating: 1536 \| avg. remaining rating: 1504
1	31	at TEN(1360) W 23-10: +19→1383	9	at KC	17	vs MIN
2	31	vs GB(1508) L 17-20: +5→1388	10	vs BUF	18	at BUF
3	30	at DET(1542) L 24-31: +10→1398	11	at LAC	W
4	30	at CHI(1556) L 12-23: +0→1398	12	at MIA	D
5		vs CLE	13	(bye)	C
6		at NE	14	vs DEN	S
7		vs MIA	15	at ARI
8		vs LV	16	vs NE

↑ Philadelphia Eagles

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1477 (-56 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1399 \| avg. lost to rating: 1554 \| avg. remaining rating: 1509
1	10	vs WAS(1457) W 24-22: -5→1546	9	vs NYG	17	at SF
2	10	at TEN(1341) W 24-20: -11→1535	10	(bye)	18	at NYG
3	15	at CHI(1520) L 7-27: -35→1500	11	vs PIT	W
4	18	vs LAR(1588) L 20-24: -4→1496	12	at DAL	D
5		at JAX	13	at ARI	C
6		vs CAR	14	vs IND	S
7		vs DAL	15	vs SEA
8		at WAS	16	vs HOU

↑ Pittsburgh Steelers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1511 (+28 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1498 \| avg. lost to rating: 1525 \| avg. remaining rating: 1492
1	16	vs ATL(1478) W 20-13: +6→1490	9	(bye)	17	at TEN
2	21	at NE(1589) L 3-20: -15→1475	10	at CIN	18	at BAL
3	18	vs CIN(1517) W 30-27: +8→1483	11	at PHI	W
4	20	at CLE(1461) L 24-27: -5→1478	12	vs DEN	D
5		vs IND	13	vs HOU	C
6		at TB	14	at JAX	S
7		at NO	15	vs BAL
8		vs CLE	16	vs CAR

↑ San Francisco 49ers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1499 (-60 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1499 \| avg. lost to rating: - \| avg. remaining rating: 1517
1	8	at LAR(1602) W 27-7: +25→1558	9	vs LV	17	vs PHI
2	5	vs MIA(1414) W 35-13: +17→1575	10	at DAL	18	at ARI
3	5	vs ARI(1413) W 36-30: -6→1569	11	at MIN	W
4	5	vs DEN(1566) W 24-14: +16→1585	12	vs SEA	D
5		at SEA	13	at NYG	C
6		vs WAS	14	vs LAR	S
7		at ATL	15	at LAC
8		(bye)	16	at KC

↑ Seattle Seahawks

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1476 (-197 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1491 \| avg. lost to rating: 1429 \| avg. remaining rating: 1527
1	1	vs NE(1585) W 13-10: -4→1668	9	vs ARI	17	at CAR
2	1	at ARI(1438) W 31-7: +25→1693	10	at LV	18	at LAR
3	1	at WAS(1429) L 31-33: -35→1658	11	(bye)	W
4	1	vs LAC(1450) W 30-23: -13→1645	12	at SF	D
5		vs SF	13	vs DAL	C
6		at DEN	14	vs NYG	S
7		vs KC	15	at PHI
8		vs CHI	16	vs LAR

↑ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1470 (+8 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1470 \| avg. remaining rating: 1498
1	20	at CIN(1455) L 27-33: -8→1474	9	at CHI	17	vs LAR
2	24	vs CLE(1426) L 19-23: -25→1449	10	(bye)	18	at NO
3	28	vs MIN(1554) L 16-23: -9→1440	11	at DET	W
4	27	vs GB(1444) L 14-17: -12→1428	12	vs CAR	D
5		at DAL	13	vs LAC	C
6		vs PIT	14	at BAL	S
7		at CAR	15	vs NO
8		vs ATL	16	at ATL

↑ Tennessee Titans

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1473 (+121 net) \| avg. beat rating: - \| avg. lost to rating: 1473 \| avg. remaining rating: 1509
1	32	vs NYJ(1364) L 10-23: -19→1341	9	(bye)	17	vs PIT
2	32	vs PHI(1546) L 20-24: +11→1352	10	vs JAX	18	at HOU
3	32	at NYG(1454) L 7-12: +5→1357	11	at DAL	W
4	32	at BAL(1529) L 18-24: +11→1368	12	at JAX	D
5		vs HOU	13	vs WAS	C
6		at IND	14	at DET	S
7		vs CLE	15	vs IND
8		at CIN	16	at LV

↑ Washington Commanders

Wk	Rk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome	Wk	Outcome
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1547 (+94 net) \| avg. beat rating: 1693 \| avg. lost to rating: 1499 \| avg. remaining rating: 1503
1	23	at PHI(1551) L 22-24: +5→1462	9	vs LAR	17	at JAX
2	27	at DAL(1449) L 20-37: -33→1429	10	at NYG	18	vs DAL
3	22	vs SEA(1693) W 33-31: +36→1465	11	vs CIN	W
4	26	at IND(1497) L 13-30: -30→1435	12	at ARI	D
5		vs NYG	13	at TEN	C
6		at SF	14	vs HOU	S
7		(bye)	15	vs ATL
8		vs PHI	16	at MIN

↑ 2026 Season Stats and Tidbits

Longest Elo Hot Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating increase
1. 4 games (weeks 1-4) New York Jets: +33 total Elo rating
2. 3 games (weeks 2-4) Cleveland Browns: +40 total Elo rating
3. 3 games (weeks 2-4) Indianapolis Colts: +39 total Elo rating
4. 3 games (weeks 2-4) Tennessee Titans: +27 total Elo rating
5. 2 games (weeks 3-4) Atlanta Falcons: +100 total Elo rating
Longest Elo Cold Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating decrease
1. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Houston Texans: -89 total Elo rating
2. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Philadelphia Eagles: -55 total Elo rating
3. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -54 total Elo rating
4. 4 games (weeks 1-4) Detroit Lions: -45 total Elo rating
5. 2 games (weeks 3-4) New Orleans Saints: -74 total Elo rating
Biggest Elo Upsets: Highest Elo rating disparity between teams
1. Week 3, 264-Elo upset: Seattle Seahawks (1693) 13-point favorites at Washington Commanders (1429): Commanders win 33-31
2. Week 2, 122-Elo upset: Baltimore Ravens (1568) 9-point favorites vs New Orleans Saints (1446): Saints win 24-17
3. Week 2, 112-Elo upset: Houston Texans (1575) 8-point favorites vs Cincinnati Bengals (1463): Bengals win 20-6
4. Week 1, 98-Elo upset: Los Angeles Chargers (1511) 7-point favorites vs Arizona Cardinals (1413): Cardinals win 26-14
5. Week 2, 97-Elo upset: Los Angeles Chargers (1486) 6-point favorites vs Las Vegas Raiders (1389): Raiders win 26-14
Biggest Elo Score Upsets: Highest disparity between expected and actual game outcome
1. Week 2, 34-point differential: Atlanta Falcons (1472) 3-point favorites vs Carolina Panthers (1438): Panthers win 34-3
2. Week 3, 28-point differential: Green Bay Packers (1503) 7-point favorites vs Atlanta Falcons (1408): Falcons win 35-14
3. Week 2, 22-point differential: Houston Texans (1575) 8-point favorites vs Cincinnati Bengals (1463): Bengals win 20-6
4. Week 3, 29-point differential: New England Patriots (1604) Tossup favorites at Jacksonville Jaguars (1551): Jaguars win 35-6
5. Week 1, 20-point differential: Los Angeles Rams (1602) Tossup favorites at San Francisco 49ers (1533): 49ers win 27-7
Most Improved Elo on the Season:
1. +91: Las Vegas Raiders (1371) before week 1 → (1462) thru week 4
2. +52: San Francisco 49ers (1533) before week 1 → (1585) thru week 4
3. +51: Jacksonville Jaguars (1557) before week 1 → (1608) thru week 4
4. +48: Cincinnati Bengals (1455) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 4
5. +48: Carolina Panthers (1458) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 4
more...
1. +44: Dallas Cowboys (1456) before week 1 → (1500) thru week 4
2. +39: Kansas City Chiefs (1517) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 4
3. +36: Minnesota Vikings (1513) before week 1 → (1549) thru week 4
4. +33: New York Jets (1364) before week 1 → (1398) thru week 4
5. +32: Chicago Bears (1524) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 4
6. +30: Atlanta Falcons (1478) before week 1 → (1508) thru week 4
7. +28: Cleveland Browns (1438) before week 1 → (1466) thru week 4
8. +19: Indianapolis Colts (1507) before week 1 → (1526) thru week 4
9. +9: Tennessee Titans (1360) before week 1 → (1368) thru week 4
10. -4: New York Giants (1469) before week 1 → (1465) thru week 4
11. -6: Pittsburgh Steelers (1484) before week 1 → (1478) thru week 4
12. -7: Buffalo Bills (1594) before week 1 → (1586) thru week 4
13. -9: Denver Broncos (1558) before week 1 → (1550) thru week 4
14. -10: Arizona Cardinals (1413) before week 1 → (1403) thru week 4
15. -10: Los Angeles Rams (1602) before week 1 → (1592) thru week 4
16. -12: New England Patriots (1585) before week 1 → (1573) thru week 4
17. -22: Washington Commanders (1457) before week 1 → (1435) thru week 4
18. -24: New Orleans Saints (1438) before week 1 → (1414) thru week 4
19. -28: Seattle Seahawks (1672) before week 1 → (1645) thru week 4
20. -30: Baltimore Ravens (1547) before week 1 → (1517) thru week 4
21. -38: Miami Dolphins (1432) before week 1 → (1394) thru week 4
22. -45: Detroit Lions (1562) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 4
23. -48: Los Angeles Chargers (1511) before week 1 → (1463) thru week 4
24. -54: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1482) before week 1 → (1428) thru week 4
25. -55: Philadelphia Eagles (1551) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
26. -69: Green Bay Packers (1525) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 4
27. -89: Houston Texans (1585) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
Worst Elo Collapse on the Season:
1. -89: Houston Texans (1585) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
2. -69: Green Bay Packers (1525) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 4
3. -55: Philadelphia Eagles (1551) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
4. -54: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1482) before week 1 → (1428) thru week 4
5. -48: Los Angeles Chargers (1511) before week 1 → (1463) thru week 4
more...
1. -45: Detroit Lions (1562) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 4
2. -38: Miami Dolphins (1432) before week 1 → (1394) thru week 4
3. -30: Baltimore Ravens (1547) before week 1 → (1517) thru week 4
4. -28: Seattle Seahawks (1672) before week 1 → (1645) thru week 4
5. -24: New Orleans Saints (1438) before week 1 → (1414) thru week 4
6. -22: Washington Commanders (1457) before week 1 → (1435) thru week 4
7. -12: New England Patriots (1585) before week 1 → (1573) thru week 4
8. -10: Los Angeles Rams (1602) before week 1 → (1592) thru week 4
9. -10: Arizona Cardinals (1413) before week 1 → (1403) thru week 4
10. -9: Denver Broncos (1558) before week 1 → (1550) thru week 4
11. -7: Buffalo Bills (1594) before week 1 → (1586) thru week 4
12. -6: Pittsburgh Steelers (1484) before week 1 → (1478) thru week 4
13. -4: New York Giants (1469) before week 1 → (1465) thru week 4
14. +9: Tennessee Titans (1360) before week 1 → (1368) thru week 4
15. +19: Indianapolis Colts (1507) before week 1 → (1526) thru week 4
16. +28: Cleveland Browns (1438) before week 1 → (1466) thru week 4
17. +30: Atlanta Falcons (1478) before week 1 → (1508) thru week 4
18. +32: Chicago Bears (1524) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 4
19. +33: New York Jets (1364) before week 1 → (1398) thru week 4
20. +36: Minnesota Vikings (1513) before week 1 → (1549) thru week 4
21. +39: Kansas City Chiefs (1517) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 4
22. +44: Dallas Cowboys (1456) before week 1 → (1500) thru week 4
23. +48: Carolina Panthers (1458) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 4
24. +48: Cincinnati Bengals (1455) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 4
25. +51: Jacksonville Jaguars (1557) before week 1 → (1608) thru week 4
26. +52: San Francisco 49ers (1533) before week 1 → (1585) thru week 4
27. +91: Las Vegas Raiders (1371) before week 1 → (1462) thru week 4
Most Improved Elo in 8 or Fewer Games:
1. +100: Atlanta Falcons (1408) before week 3 → (1508) thru week 4
2. +97: Las Vegas Raiders (1371) before week 1 → (1468) thru week 3
3. +69: Carolina Panthers (1438) before week 2 → (1506) thru week 4
4. +62: Cincinnati Bengals (1455) before week 1 → (1517) thru week 2
5. +57: Jacksonville Jaguars (1551) before week 3 → (1608) thru week 4
more...
1. +52: San Francisco 49ers (1533) before week 1 → (1585) thru week 4
2. +51: Minnesota Vikings (1513) before week 1 → (1564) thru week 3
3. +51: Dallas Cowboys (1449) before week 2 → (1500) thru week 4
4. +50: New Orleans Saints (1438) before week 1 → (1488) thru week 2
5. +40: Cleveland Browns (1426) before week 2 → (1466) thru week 4
6. +39: Indianapolis Colts (1487) before week 2 → (1526) thru week 4
7. +39: Kansas City Chiefs (1517) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 4
8. +35: Chicago Bears (1520) before week 3 → (1556) thru week 4
9. +33: New York Jets (1364) before week 1 → (1398) thru week 3
10. +29: Denver Broncos (1537) before week 2 → (1566) thru week 3
11. +27: Tennessee Titans (1341) before week 2 → (1368) thru week 4
12. +23: Los Angeles Chargers (1440) before week 3 → (1463) thru week 4
13. +22: Buffalo Bills (1594) before week 1 → (1616) thru week 2
14. +20: Seattle Seahawks (1672) before week 1 → (1693) thru week 2
15. +19: New England Patriots (1585) before week 1 → (1604) thru week 2
16. +15: Los Angeles Rams (1577) before week 2 → (1592) thru week 4
17. +11: New York Giants (1454) before week 3 → (1465) thru week 4
18. +7: Washington Commanders (1457) before week 1 → (1465) thru week 3
19. +6: Arizona Cardinals (1413) before week 1 → (1419) thru week 3
20. +2: Pittsburgh Steelers (1475) before week 3 → (1478) thru week 4
21. -3: Miami Dolphins (1397) before week 3 → (1394) thru week 4
22. -8: Baltimore Ravens (1526) before week 3 → (1517) thru week 4
23. -15: Philadelphia Eagles (1551) before week 1 → (1535) thru week 2
24. -20: Detroit Lions (1562) before week 1 → (1542) thru week 2
25. -21: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1449) before week 3 → (1428) thru week 4
26. -22: Green Bay Packers (1525) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 2
27. -25: Houston Texans (1521) before week 3 → (1496) thru week 4
Worst Elo Collapse in 8 or Fewer Games:
1. -89: Houston Texans (1585) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
2. -81: Green Bay Packers (1525) before week 1 → (1444) thru week 3
3. -74: New Orleans Saints (1488) before week 3 → (1414) thru week 4
4. -71: Los Angeles Chargers (1511) before week 1 → (1440) thru week 2
5. -70: Atlanta Falcons (1478) before week 1 → (1408) thru week 2
more...
1. -55: Philadelphia Eagles (1551) before week 1 → (1496) thru week 4
2. -54: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1482) before week 1 → (1428) thru week 4
3. -53: Miami Dolphins (1432) before week 1 → (1379) thru week 3
4. -50: Baltimore Ravens (1568) before week 2 → (1517) thru week 4
5. -48: Seattle Seahawks (1693) before week 3 → (1645) thru week 4
6. -45: Detroit Lions (1562) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 4
7. -36: New England Patriots (1589) before week 2 → (1553) thru week 3
8. -35: Arizona Cardinals (1438) before week 2 → (1403) thru week 4
9. -29: Buffalo Bills (1616) before week 3 → (1586) thru week 4
10. -28: Washington Commanders (1457) before week 1 → (1429) thru week 2
11. -27: New York Giants (1476) before week 2 → (1449) thru week 3
12. -14: Cincinnati Bengals (1517) before week 3 → (1503) thru week 4
13. -14: Indianapolis Colts (1507) before week 1 → (1493) thru week 2
14. -14: Los Angeles Rams (1602) before week 1 → (1588) thru week 3
15. -12: Pittsburgh Steelers (1490) before week 2 → (1478) thru week 4
16. -9: Denver Broncos (1558) before week 1 → (1550) thru week 4
17. -8: Tennessee Titans (1360) before week 1 → (1352) thru week 2
18. -6: Jacksonville Jaguars (1557) before week 1 → (1551) thru week 2
19. -5: Minnesota Vikings (1554) before week 3 → (1549) thru week 4
20. -4: Chicago Bears (1524) before week 1 → (1520) thru week 2
21. +-5: Carolina Panthers (1501) before week 3 → (1506) thru week 4
22. +-10: San Francisco 49ers (1575) before week 3 → (1585) thru week 4
23. +-10: New York Jets (1388) before week 3 → (1398) thru week 4
24. +-12: Kansas City Chiefs (1538) before week 2 → (1550) thru week 3
25. +-13: Cleveland Browns (1438) before week 1 → (1451) thru week 2
26. +-19: Dallas Cowboys (1481) before week 3 → (1500) thru week 4
27. +-27: Las Vegas Raiders (1435) before week 3 → (1462) thru week 4
Strongest Average Opponent Rating:
1. New England Patriots: 1580
2. Denver Broncos: 1563
3. Arizona Cardinals: 1551
4. Washington Commanders: 1547
5. Cincinnati Bengals: 1533
more...
1. Buffalo Bills: 1533
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1522
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 1519
4. Indianapolis Colts: 1518
5. Los Angeles Rams: 1516
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1511
7. New Orleans Saints: 1508
8. Houston Texans: 1507
9. Miami Dolphins: 1506
10. Cleveland Browns: 1504
11. San Francisco 49ers: 1499
12. Carolina Panthers: 1495
13. Dallas Cowboys: 1493
14. New York Jets: 1492
15. Las Vegas Raiders: 1489
16. Chicago Bears: 1480
17. Detroit Lions: 1480
18. Kansas City Chiefs: 1478
19. Philadelphia Eagles: 1477
20. Seattle Seahawks: 1476
21. Minnesota Vikings: 1475
22. Tennessee Titans: 1473
23. Atlanta Falcons: 1470
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1470
25. New York Giants: 1451
26. Baltimore Ravens: 1448
27. Green Bay Packers: 1436
Weakest Average Opponent Rating:
1. Green Bay Packers: 1436
2. Baltimore Ravens: 1448
3. New York Giants: 1451
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1470
5. Atlanta Falcons: 1470
more...
1. Tennessee Titans: 1473
2. Minnesota Vikings: 1475
3. Seattle Seahawks: 1476
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 1477
5. Kansas City Chiefs: 1478
6. Detroit Lions: 1480
7. Chicago Bears: 1480
8. Las Vegas Raiders: 1489
9. New York Jets: 1492
10. Dallas Cowboys: 1493
11. Carolina Panthers: 1495
12. San Francisco 49ers: 1499
13. Cleveland Browns: 1504
14. Miami Dolphins: 1506
15. Houston Texans: 1507
16. New Orleans Saints: 1508
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1511
18. Los Angeles Rams: 1516
19. Indianapolis Colts: 1518
20. Los Angeles Chargers: 1519
21. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1522
22. Buffalo Bills: 1533
23. Cincinnati Bengals: 1533
24. Washington Commanders: 1547
25. Arizona Cardinals: 1551
26. Denver Broncos: 1563
27. New England Patriots: 1580
Strongest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
1. Washington Commanders: 1693
2. Denver Broncos: 1584
3. New Orleans Saints: 1568
4. New England Patriots: 1548
5. Cincinnati Bengals: 1528
more...
1. Buffalo Bills: 1526
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1517
3. Arizona Cardinals: 1511
4. Carolina Panthers: 1502
5. San Francisco 49ers: 1499
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1498
7. Indianapolis Colts: 1493
8. Seattle Seahawks: 1491
9. Dallas Cowboys: 1490
10. Los Angeles Rams: 1488
11. Cleveland Browns: 1486
12. Atlanta Falcons: 1479
13. Kansas City Chiefs: 1478
14. Minnesota Vikings: 1475
15. Las Vegas Raiders: 1469
16. Chicago Bears: 1464
17. Baltimore Ravens: 1448
18. Detroit Lions: 1413
19. Green Bay Packers: 1411
20. New York Giants: 1409
21. Philadelphia Eagles: 1399
22. New York Jets: 1360
23. Houston Texans: 0
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0
25. Miami Dolphins: 0
26. Los Angeles Chargers: 0
27. Tennessee Titans: 0
Weakest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
1. Tennessee Titans: 0
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 0
3. Miami Dolphins: 0
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0
5. Houston Texans: 0
more...
1. New York Jets: 1360
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 1399
3. New York Giants: 1409
4. Green Bay Packers: 1411
5. Detroit Lions: 1413
6. Baltimore Ravens: 1448
7. Chicago Bears: 1464
8. Las Vegas Raiders: 1469
9. Minnesota Vikings: 1475
10. Kansas City Chiefs: 1478
11. Atlanta Falcons: 1479
12. Cleveland Browns: 1486
13. Los Angeles Rams: 1488
14. Dallas Cowboys: 1490
15. Seattle Seahawks: 1491
16. Indianapolis Colts: 1493
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1498
18. San Francisco 49ers: 1499
19. Carolina Panthers: 1502
20. Arizona Cardinals: 1511
21. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1517
22. Buffalo Bills: 1526
23. Cincinnati Bengals: 1528
24. New England Patriots: 1548
25. New Orleans Saints: 1568
26. Denver Broncos: 1584
27. Washington Commanders: 1693

↑ 2026 Season Model Accuracy

Week	Winners Picked	Running Total
1	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)
2	10-6 (10/16, 62.5%)	20-12 (20/32, 62.5%)
3	11-5 (11/16, 68.75%)	31-17 (31/48, 64.58%)
4	12-4 (12/16, 75.0%)	43-21 (43/64, 67.19%)

↑ Introduction and Background

This page shows week-by-week NFL power rankings, based on the Elo rating system. The Elo rating system is a fair way to judge to relative strength of competitors, and is therefore an objective way to create NFL power rankings.

The Elo rating system is most notably used for rating chess players. It can be used to calculate the expected winning percentage in a multi- game chess match, where players with similar ratings are expected to win or draw about 50% of games against each other. After a match, player ratings are adjusted based on their actual vs. expected winning percentage.

In applying Elo ratings to football, we can consider each game as a series of drives. If one team "wins" most of the drives within a game, they'll likely end up with a large margin of victory. If both teams "win" the same number of drives, the margin of victory will likely be much more narrow. Therefore, team ratings can be used to calculate an expected margin of victory for the favored team. After a game, the two teams' Elo ratings are adjusted based on the actual vs. expected margin of victory. See the FAQ page for more background.

This Elo rating model was tuned by backtesting against NFL games from 1994 through 2025. Over that span it correctly picks winners in 65.67% of games, trailing the Vegas straight-up pick rate of 66.64% (according to covers.com/sportsoddshistory). This is an average of ~2.6 fewer game winners picked per season than Vegas. This model also does well compared to the average picker at NFL Picks Page. That being said, these ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes. The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its accuracy for the current or future seasons.

Have more questions? See the FAQ page.

Elo rating details:

An "average" rating is 1500.
For every game, the better-performing team takes some number of Elo rating points from its opponent.
Predictions and rating updates are calculated from:
- margin of victory/defeat,
- home field advantage,
- rest/travel days between games,
- whether an overtime period occurred,
- offseason "parity reset" (reversion to the mean),
- early season shenanigans/uncertainty,
- division alignment (whether a game is a division matchup),
- whether a game is meaningless with respect to playoff seeding,
- and of course both teams' ratings.
The losing team can gain Elo rating points, as long as they perform above expectations.
The winning team can lose Elo rating points if they perform below expectations.
Elo ratings do not move much from week to week. This minimizes the overreaction from upsets. Like all model parameters, this has been carefully adjusted to make the model more accurate.
Offseason "parity reset": team ratings move a little bit toward the average during the offseason.
Each week's ratings are based on the previous week's ratings in a chain going back to the start of the 1992 season — although only the last ~20 games have any real impact on current ratings with the most recent ~10 being by far the most significant. The model looks back to the 1992 season solely for testing purposes: after allowing for the 1992 and 1993 seasons to play out, the Elo rating model is tested for accuracy against all games since week 1 of the 1994 season.
While it would be fun to look at historic data, at this time there is no plan to include 1991 or older seasons in the model search process, nor to publish 2019 or older seasons.
If you see an unequal number of Elo rating points moved from one team to another after games, it's because ratings are actually decimal values and are only rounded for display here.

2026 Updates

2026 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- A new "v4.2026.07" model was found, and it's the most accurate model yet over the last 25 seasons. It also fixes the misbehavior of last year's "v3.2025.06" model. See more details in the 2026 preseason blog post.
- A new blank slate model, "blank-slate-v3.2026.08", was found. This new blank slate model picks 5,454 game winners over the 8,498 games from 1994-2025 (64.19%), which is a nice improvement over the "blank-slate-v1.2024.07" model that picks 5,390 game winners (63.43%) over that span. That's an average of exactly 2 more game winners picked per season.

2025 Updates

2026-01-03 - Reverted to last year's "v2.2024.07" model. See the 2025 blog post for more details. The "v3.2025.06" 2025 rankings are available here.
2025 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- An improved "v3.2025.06" model was found after a much bigger automated model search where 10 million models were evaluated for each of the regular, "never lose Elo for a win," and "blank slate" model types. The new "v3.2025.06" model is a "regular" model, and was more accurate than the new best found "never lose Elo for a win" and "blank slate" models. It picks a net 2.3 more game winners correctly per season from 1994 through 2024 than last year's "v2.2024.07" model. See more details in the 2025 preseason blog post.
- Added "frozen" versions of last year's season pages, as they appeared after the Super Bowl in February in 2025. There are links to the frozen pages near the top of the above linked blog post.

2024 Updates

2024-11-14 - Added separate "never lose Elo for a win" pages, where the favorite loses 0 Elo rating points for a win by the expected margin or less. They are slightly less accurate than the regular model for now (picking 0.75 fewer game winners per season).
2024-11-12 - Added separate "no margin of victory" pages, where the winning team always takes Elo rating points from the losing team. They are less accurate than the regular model (picking 3.9 fewer game winners per season) but are popularly requested on Reddit.
2024 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- After testing millions of models, found an improved model, called "v2.2024.07", that picks a net 3.5+ more game winners correctly per season (from 2012 through 2023). This new model is now being used for all season pages. See more details in this blog post.
- Added "frozen" versions of last year's season pages, as they appeared after the Super Bowl in February in 2024. See the 2024 season blog post for links to those frozen pages.
- Added the "Season Model Accuracy" section.
- Expanded many of the items in the "Season Stats and Tidbits" section to list all 32 teams.
- Found a separate, better model for the "blank slate" pages where all teams start each season with a 1500 rating (like the 2024-only page).

2023 Updates

2023-11-28 - Improvements to the plumbing behind the scenes, which among other things now allows for each team's full schedule to be shown in the season summary section.
2023-11-15 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,038 game winners (out of 3,124 total games) from 2012w1-2023w10, where the previous best model picked 2,032 winners.
- Applies a curve to increase the Elo scores earned from small-to-medium margins of victory, effectively tilting the balance more toward winning in general and away from large margins of victory. See more details in this post.
- Increases the "Elo score" earned for a "narrow win" (again, increasing the importance of wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory).
- Widens the definition of a "narrow win" and awards a linearly-increasing Elo score for those.
- Slightly increases the Elo score earned from an overtime victory.
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- The ratings and rankings change only slightly from the previous model, following 2023w10:
  - the Chiefs are now rated ~2 Elo points higher than the Bills, up from <1 point
  - the Lions overtake the Bengals in the rankings, moving from 8th to 7th
  - the Bengals drop from 7th to 8th
  - the Dolphins overtake the Chargers in the rankings, moving from 10th to 9th
  - the Chargers drop from 9th to 10th
  - the Eagles are now 20 Elo rating points behind the 1st place 49ers, where previously they were 25 points behind
2023-11-13 - Added average opponent rating info to team summaries and to the season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
2023-11-07 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,024 game winners (out of 3,110 total games) from 2012w1-2023w9, where the previous best model picked 2,020 winners.
- Uses a larger Elo "k factor" to react more strongly to individual games.
- Decreases the "big win" margin of victory, effectively increasing the importance of wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory.
- Slightly increases the strength of the "offseason parity reset."
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- Ranks teams closer to where a human might rank them after 2023w9:
  - the Bills drop from 2nd to 4th
  - the Ravens move from 3rd to 2nd
  - the Eagles move from 4th to 3rd
  - the Dolphins drop from 9th to 11th
  - the Lions move from 10th to 9th
  - the Jaguars move from 11th to 10th
- Also added the 2010 season, which allows using the 2012 season for backtesting the model.
2023-10-31 - Added power rank to season summary tables.
2023-10-29 - Added longest Elo hot/cold streaks to season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
2023-10-26 - Added new per-team season summaries toward the bottom of the page. Team names and week numbers are clickable to easily jump around between the power ranking and season summary sections.
2023-10-23 - Added "Stats and Tidbids" section at the bottom of the page. More coming soon.
2023-10-23 - Fixed conversion of expected Elo score to margin of victory football points in upcoming games. This doesn't affect the model, only the displayed point values.
2023-10-16 - A more dramatic model update: team ratings change more rapidly, yet I was able to optimize the model to pick the same number of game winners as the previous model. I wrote a little more background on my blog post. Changes to the post-week 5 rankings include:
- the Bills drop from 1st to 2nd
- the 49ers move from 2nd to 1st
- the Lions move from 8th to 6th
- the Dolphins move from 11th to 10th
- the Jaguars move from 17th to 14th
- the Jets move from 23rd to 20th
- the Ravens drop from 6th to 9th
- the Saints drop from 10th to 11th
- the Patriots drop from 21st to 26th
Overall, the new model seems to rank the teams closer to where a human would. While both this new model and the previous model pick 1822 winners correctly out of 2785 games since week 1 of the 2013 season, the previous model has a median "elo score" differential of 0.1152 over those games, where the new model is slightly higher at 0.1177. I'll continue to test tweaks to the model.
2023-10-11 - Tiny model improvements, and home-vs-away fixes (these fixes don't alter the current power rankings).
2023-10-10 - After lots of feedback on reddit, mostly saying that previous seasons shouldn't matter so much, I went back to the drawing board to look at the "offseason parity reset." Moving to a slightly bigger offseason reset appears to result in rankings that look better to the eye in the early part of the season. Plus, it increases the accuracy of the model when backtested over all games since 2013: the median "Elo score" differential decreased from 0.1168 to 0.1158, and the rate of incorrectly-picked winners decreased from 35.0449% to 34.7935%.

With this change, the post-week-5 rankings have the Lions moving up from 11th to 8th, the Dolphins moving up from 13th to 11th, the Jaguars moving from 19th to 17th, and other minor moves.
2023-10-09 - Improved handling of bye and offseason weeks for the "prev:" display.
2023-10-06 - Added +/- "since last week" fields to the Rank and Elo Rating columns.
2023-10-05 - I found some knobs I could adjust in my Elo model that both increased its accuracy and also made the current (2023 after week 4) rankings look better to my eye. More adjustments that fulfill both of those requirements could be made in the future, if any are found. But depending on feedback I receive I'll leave the Elo rating algorithm to stand pat for now.

These changes increased the rate at which winners were predicted since 2013 (up to 65% from 64%) and decreased the median "Elo score" (where a blowout loss is 0.0, a tie is 0.5, and a blowout win is 1.0) differential between estimated and actual performance from 0.17 to 0.12 (in other words, the model predicted game score differential more accurately).

As for the "eye test" improvements, for the rankings following 2023 week 4, the Lions moved up from 21st to 12th, the Dolphins moved up from 17th to 13th, the Patriots moved down from 9th to 15th, the Packers moved down from 8th to 10th, the Jaguars moved up from 28th to 20th, the 49ers moved up from 3rd to 2nd, etc.
2023-10-05 - Added two more seasons to the model: 2011 and 2012. I realized I wanted to use 10 full seasons to backtest the Elo rating model, but the first and perhaps second seasons aren't useful for backtesting because all teams are clustered around the initial 1500 rating. Now that ratings are initially computed for the 2011 and 2012 seasons, all games from 2013 onward are used for backtesting model updates.

These ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes. The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its accuracy for the current or future seasons.

The schedule on this page is derived from Pro-Football-Reference.com, with weekly scores data from nflverse and some hand-entered scores.

The data on these pages was at one point derived from Wikipedia NFL teams' pages. I donate to Wikipedia annually. If you value free access to information on the web, or have recently found Wikipedia useful, I encourage you to do so as well.

If you enjoy reading these power rankings, check out the discussion in my weekly posts in the r/nfl subreddit or leave a small tip. Thanks!

NFL Elo Power Rankings 2026

Contents

↑ Power Rankings After Week 4, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 3, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 2, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Power Rankings After Week 1, 2026 Season

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Preseason Power Rankings, 2026 season:

https://philthompson.me/nfl-elo/

↑ Team Summaries for 2026 Season

↑ Arizona Cardinals

↑ Atlanta Falcons

↑ Baltimore Ravens

↑ Buffalo Bills

↑ Carolina Panthers

↑ Chicago Bears

↑ Cincinnati Bengals

↑ Cleveland Browns

↑ Dallas Cowboys

↑ Denver Broncos

↑ Detroit Lions

↑ Green Bay Packers

↑ Houston Texans

↑ Indianapolis Colts

↑ Jacksonville Jaguars

↑ Kansas City Chiefs

↑ Las Vegas Raiders

↑ Los Angeles Chargers

↑ Los Angeles Rams

↑ Miami Dolphins

↑ Minnesota Vikings

↑ New England Patriots

↑ New Orleans Saints

↑ New York Giants

↑ New York Jets

↑ Philadelphia Eagles

↑ Pittsburgh Steelers

↑ San Francisco 49ers

↑ Seattle Seahawks

↑ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

↑ Tennessee Titans

↑ Washington Commanders

↑ 2026 Season Stats and Tidbits

↑ 2026 Season Model Accuracy

↑ Introduction and Background